We’ve all heard plenty complaining about the difficulties in growing elixir stores post update. This is a multifaceted problem with both revenue and cost elements. This analysis is premised on viewing all the elixir available from all players as part of the Clash of Clans (“CoC”) system as a whole.
First, we must define the sources of inflow and outflow to inform the analysis. For simplicity, let us talk in terms of elixir although it could also pertain to dark elixir. Gold is a different story as it does not have the same cost elements.
With respect to inflows and the total amount of elixir in the CoC system, the following can be observed:
- Collectors represent the natural, relatively steady growth of elixir in the game
- Raiding storages represents a trading of elixir between players. It does not increase the amount of elixir in the system as a whole
- Loot bonuses and war win bonuses represent an infusion of elixir into the universe every time they are awarded
This is countered by the outflows in the CoC system:
- Troop, upgrade, and other costs represent a permanent removal of elixir from the system
- Raiding losses are simply traded amounts between players and represent no change to the amount available in the system
- Elixir hidden from the system through inappropriate methods
The simple mathematical formula to describe the stock of elixir in the system is as follows:
(1) System elixir = Collector production + Loot bonuses – Elixir costs – hidden amounts
Naturally, it can be seen that the total elixir supply goes down if the sum of all elixir costs and hidden amounts outweigh the natural production plus loot bonuses. Loot bonuses earned and elixir costs (although this is more of an indirect outcome) have likely changed post-update, and who knows whether or not hidden amounts have (though there is stronger incentive for people to engage in this now).
Inflows
Only Supercell can know the actual dynamic of raiding in the CoC universe pre-update. However, we all know that town hall sniping in conjunction with the 100% win bonus was an exceptional return for elixir at higher league levels. It is entirely possible that it was in fact a primary source of real growth of elixir. We also know that such an approach is no longer possible, except for the case of outside town halls with very full storages which are exceptionally uncommon.
By definition, Supercell has decreased the odds of earning a full loot bonus post-update. 70% destruction is required for a full loot bonus, but bonuses at each level increased slightly, so I will argue for sake of ease that obtaining 65% on a target will net you about the same loot bonus as the pre-update amount for each league level.
My observations are that most players, except a few that are maxed at their town hall level, have dropped leagues post-update. If this can be extended across the whole CoC Universe, then it would be clear that total maximum loot bonuses earned are depressed, even if they are being earned at a full 100% rate. Staying in a higher league and being reasonably confident of getting a star on an attack for 100% bonus is no longer an option.
Thus, to the extent that loot bonuses being awarded have decreased, the total elixir available system wide would decrease relative to the pre-update level. Only Supercell knows if this has actually occurred, but there appears to be evidence of this and it is also intuitively sensible to expect that it has.
*It is important to note that although Supercell increased the percentage of stored amounts available to would be raiders, this has no bearing on the actual amount of elixir in the system. An amount gained by one player is an amount lost by another (ignoring bonuses).
Outflows
Outflows of elixir from the CoC universe have everything to do with elixir costs for troops, upgrades, and other minor costs such as xbow reload, and obstacle removal. These amounts do not go to other players in the game, they just disappear.
Increased army costs as a drain on the system
I am not aware of any drastic changes in troop unit costs or upgrade costs from this particular update. Reload costs have actually significantly declined on an usage basis, but are being reloaded much more often than under the town hall sniping regime. Thus, the impact of the reloading costs is probably not significant in total.
It would seem then that the only way in which elixir costs would have increased is if the average cost of an attack in multiplayer raiding has increased (war attacks have always been expensive so I ignore any potential changes in war army compositions). In my opinion, this is by far the most relevant issue to be discussed, and it is not very well covered in the forum.
The major question is, why are such large and expensive army compositions required post update? Was town hall sniping reliance so heavy that people literally never raided actual bases? If the benchmark army under the pre-update regime was primarily a Barching army, certainly a movement towards a raiding composition using giants/wizards would represent a massive increase in troop cost, and therefore, much less elixir in the CoC universe post-update. It is a fair assumption I think that this has happened, at least to some extent.
There is perhaps more to this story as well. Currently, matchmaking seems to involve outcomes whereby targets are too hard and/or unrealistic for the attacker’s level approximately 80% of the time. There are many forum posts relating to why this may be the case. Although it is a near certainty that if one presses next enough a suitable target will be found eventually, most people don’t have enough time to sit there and next for 30 minutes straight. Plus it is mind-numbingly boring. As a result, people feel “forced” into attacking challenging targets with just enough loot available to entice them, and by extension, feel forced to come prepared with massive armies. Such musing sounds consistent with Supercell’s stated goal of encouraging challenging and skillful attacks. Clearly though, this approach represents a drain on the system relative to the prior system.
Anecdotally, even if just looking at forum comments, it seems that most people have moved towards expensive armies post-update.
*Interestingly, it is within the power of CoC players to drain the system elixir to almost nothing. If everybody simultaneously engages in attacking bases for a loss, the system will be drained!
Upgrading practices as a new drain
Simply put anybody who is ready to build level 9 walls or higher has a pretty strong incentive to bury any excess elixir into wall upgrades. This represents a direct drain on elixir available in storages in the CoC system. Pre-update, players were more confident to hold onto elixir because their TH would get sniped for a shield 90% of the time.
Unfair practices as a drain
A final possible elixir drain is the unfair practices of individual players. Software existed pre-update that allowed players to appear online and therefore not be subject to raid. I cannot verify the accuracy of the claims, nor do I know if Supercell has addressed this issue. However, there is a stronger incentive than ever for people to resort to these unfair practices and I would expect many people rushed to this solution post-update as a means to protect themselves. In particular, rushers and low skill players are particularly benefited through these unfair practices. Naturally, any approach that hides loot holders from the searching queue is decreasing the system wide loot available for searching (although not the actual amount of system wide loot).
Unfair practices might also refer to attempts by Supercell itself to create search queues that are front-end loaded with very difficult search targets. There are theories about the search queue, and what is prioritized or not. All I know is that my near maxed TH9 finds an absurd amount of high level th10, and even now th11, in searches. We are talking 80% plus incidence. This doesn't seem like a random distribution.
Solutions
It seems as if Supercell has not quite found the optimal balance post-update, which has resulted possibly in a universe-wide elixir reduction. With an update of this magnitude, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Luckily, this situation is easily resolvable without Supercell having to overhaul the changes that it has made. They can still preserve their underlying desire to encourage proper attacking and defending.
Below, I present some very plausible solutions to bring the amount of elixir in the CoC system up to an appropriate level:
- A significant increase to the production capabilities of elixir collectors. This provides a permanent and sustained boost to the elixir in the system. People will protect the elixir collector with higher priority than gold since it produces more. Thus sniping the elixir collector will not be easy and proper attacks still required.
- As an alternative to 1, Supercell could monitor system elixir and deliver a boost to the system whenever it falls below a threshold. For example, 1 gem boost events would have this effect.
- A revamp of the loot bonus system, either by increasing loot at all trophy levels (by say at least 40k elixir) or altering the percentage based award system to make it easier to earn bonus with cheaper armies. In fact eliminating the % based loot bonus and going back to 1 star would be sufficient. Cheaper armies can gain 1 star even from slightly higher quality opponents.
- Under the current matchmaking/searching system, a reduction in troop and spell training costs is required. As an example, a TH9 giant/healer/wiz/arch with spell army can cost at least 180k. This probably needs to be more like 120k to be feasible in the post-update environment since most matches cannot be three starred and available elixir to loot is low to begin with.
- A change in the matchmaking system that provides opponents that are more level appropriate. The reason for this is to alter the expectations of raiders so that they can make middle-road armies with the expectation of being able to attack something appropriate, as opposed to the expectation of finding mostly maxed out same town hall level bases or higher level town hall bases. If raiders expect the opponent they are given will be very difficult, they will cook massive armies and drain the CoC universe of elixir (since they have to cook armies before finding a target).
- Something really radical like identifying targets first, then cooking army to suit. This will reduce the need to cook a generic expensive army without knowing the search outcomes.
- Time to put the foot down on people engaged in unfair gaming, and get those hidden elixir amounts back into the search queue.
- Time for Supercell to stop front end loading search queue with bases nobody will ever attack (if this is in fact what is happening currently, not verified)
Conclusion
This analysis focuses not on the individual raider, and the perception that they cannot find elixir as an individual during searches (which in itself is not accurate as there are certainly targets to be had out there). Rather, the analysis frames the discussion as the issue of total elixir available “in the system”. I generalized the contributing factors to system elixir, analysed how the update affected such factors, and provided some very easy solutions to the problem.
The luck of individual looting outcomes will naturally improve as the elixir in the system improves using these recommendations. Thanks for reading!
Originally Posted by jxl0918
