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  Click here to go to the first staff post in this thread.   Thread: Why Lava Hounds are not Overpowered (Math)

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    Why Lava Hounds are not Overpowered (Math)

    In this post I will go over the math for why the hound is not overpowered as a tanking troop. I guarantee you will disagree with my method. I guarantee you will disagree with many of the "estimates" and things that I leave out - but there is no easy way to calculate what I am going to calculate, so hear me out:

    If you don't want to read the entire post, read the paragraph before the conclusion and the conclusion and skip the math.

    Otherwise, please read/skim the entire post so that you can know the extent of my calculations and so that you won't post that I left X or Y out when I didn't. Of course I didn't include everything, but I did include more than just a comparison of HP.

    Note: All calculations are made with max troops and defenses.

    We can find out whether or not the hound is balanced by comparing it to a similar troop, the golem. No one believes the golem is OP, yet these two troops serve almost identical purposes; the only difference is that one is for ground and one is for air.

    Let's start by comparing Lava Hound and Golem HPs. Lava Hounds have 6700, whereas golems have 6300 and two golemites with 1260 HP each, meaning that each golem essentially has 8820 HP.

    From the start, we must include one critical difference in ground and air attacks: the seeking air mine. TH10s have 5 seeking air mines, each dealing 2100 damage. It is safe to assume that all air mines will hit hounds, because destroying hounds quickly is an important factor in base design. Since a common number of hounds to bring is 4, this averages to 2625 damage per hound.

    Thus, after the air mine, the hound has 3975 HP.

    Now, we move to defenses. Excluding X-Bows from the calculation due to their dual nature, and assuming infernoes are set to multi-target, here is the total DPS of all defenses of a max TH10. Using this number, I will calculate how "tanky" each unit is. While you question my use of totaling all DPS, keep in mind that all defenses, other than the x-bow (which we are excluding from the calculation) wizard tower and tesla (both of which can hit ground and air), have about the same range. Thus, range does not play a great role in effective DPS, and if all buildings have about the same range, their DPS can be added together to make an overall DPS of the base.

    Buildings which can target both ground and air:
    1) Archer Tower: 7 * 98 = 686 DPS
    2) Wizard Tower: 4 * 48 = 192 DPS
    3) Inferno Tower: 2 * 42 = 84 DPS
    4) Tesla: 4 * 99 = 396 DPS

    The air defense:
    4 * 320 = 1280 DPS

    Buildings which can only target ground:
    1) Cannon: 6 * 98 = 588 DPS
    2) Mortar: 4 * 13 = 52 DPS

    Thus, the total DPS for air troops is 2638 DPS. The total DPS for ground troops is 1998 DPS.

    A lava hound, with 3975 HP, "scores" 1.507 (3875/2638). This means that it will last 1.507 seconds under fire.

    A golem, with 8820 HP, "scores" 4.414.

    Now, moving to housing space.

    Unquestionably, both units cost 30 housing space. But this is not a complete estimate. In order to get closer to the "true" housing space of each unit, we must consider the hound's pups and the walls which will affect the golem.

    Lava Pups: Each pup has 35 DPS and 50 HP. Each minion has 54 HP and 84 DPS. Taking the geometric mean of 35/54 and 50/84, we get 0.621. This means that each pup is worth approximately 0.621 of a minion.

    A hound spawns 12 pups, and for simplicity's sake let's assume that 8 survive. This means that 4.968 minions are spawned by the hound, accounting for 9.936 more housing space. Thus, the hound's housing space as a tank is 20.064.

    Golem: In order for a golem to function properly, one must bring wall breakers. An estimate of 12 wall breakers for 3 golems is reasonable, so with a golem comes a need to bring 8 more housing space. The golem's total housing space must then be 38.

    EDIT: in order for golem to equalize with the hound, 14 wall breakers must be used with each golem. This is more than enough to negate walls.

    Now, we will calculate the overall "tankiness per housing space" of each troop. The hound scored 1.507, meaning that its tankiness per housing space is 0.075. The golem scored 4.414, meaning that its tankiness per housing space is 0.116.

    Conclusion
    It is obvious from the data that hounds are less tanky than golems. Thus, the troop is not overpowered as a tank. I had initially set out to prove with math that the hound was overpowered, but I had proved myself wrong and convinced myself that the hound is not in fact overpowered.

    Because hounds as a troop are not overpowered, I have come to the conclusion that the combination of balloons and hounds is overpowered. If hounds are not overpowered, then either balloons are overpowered or the combination is overpowered. Balloons are not overpowered; they were there before hounds and no one complained. Therefore, the combination is overpowered and the problem is not in the hound itself, but in this combination of balloons and hounds together which is OP.

    So far all the examples of hounds being OP are examples of lava hounds and balloons together being OP. I will take a strong stance on this as because the math shows that hounds aren't OP as a troop, their effectiveness when used in conjunction with balloons is OP, so that can only mean that the combination and not the troop is OP.

    If you say that hounds, because they create an overpowered combination, are therefore OP, then you are not considering the scenario where one adds hounds to a strategy that is not balloonion: for example, mass dragons. Because hounds as a troop are not OP, nerfing hounds would nerf combinations such as hound/drag, and would thus be unfair because these nerfs are only targeted as lavaloonion.
    Last edited by X7386; March 31st, 2015 at 04:50 AM.
    X7

    CoC Level 109 | TH 9 | TWSS | Surgical Hog User

    Lava Hounds aren't OP, only laloon(ion). See the math | Valks > PEKKAs

  2. #2
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    If you are using math to decide whether a troop is overpowered you are doing it wrong (not always the case but your math completely neglects several variables, making it pointless)

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    Senior Member iLLpluminati's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gama321 View Post
    If you are using math to decide whether a troop is overpowered you are doing it wrong (not always the case but your math completely neglects several variables, making it pointless)
    He in fact did leave out a few variables, but the ideology is brilliant. Certainly not a good reason to disparage the post. Nice work OP, I imagine the math took a considerable amount of time.
    Th10 with a larger GG than several games of high roller monopoly.
    Lavas>Zapps(admit it, lavas do look better..)

  4. #4
    You included wall breakers in the calculation for the golem's housing space efficiency, but that overly diminishes the big problem golems have with walls. At best, your 12 wall breakers will open up a path for your golems to reach the core, but they definitely won't get the golems past the core and into the back half of the base. Lava hounds are able to reach the entire base, which is a major advantage over golems that won't show up in a straightforward mathematical breakdown. There's also the smaller but still significant factor that lava hounds move faster than the troops they tank for, while golems are the slower than the troops they tank for and oftentimes let a couple troops die before they can catch up and start tanking deeper defenses.

  5. #5
    Are they even that good?
    I heard they are good once leveled up but i have yet to get them anyways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iLLpluminati View Post
    He in fact did leave out a few variables, but the ideology is brilliant. Certainly not a good reason to disparage the post. Nice work OP, I imagine the math took a considerable amount of time.
    What idealogy is brilliant? I pointed out to the OP that such an approach is fundamentally flawed unless everything is incorporated which is pretty close to impossible.
    Not pointing such a thing out is rude to the OP who spent so much time and effort trying to figure it out. If you disagree with my above statement and think that an approach is useful why not say why? I am pretty sure it would be more helpful to the OP if you consider contributing something to this thread instead of a "+1 nice thread" sort of comment.

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    Super Member Ben1234's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Gama321;4148945]What idealogy is brilliant? I pointed out to the OP that such an approach is fundamentally flawed unless everything is incorporated which is pretty close to impossible.
    Not pointing such a thing out is rude to the OP who spent so much time and effort trying to figure it out. If you disagree with my above statement and think that an approach is useful why not say why? I am pretty sure it would be more helpful to the OP if you consider contributing something to this thread instead of a "+1 nice thread" sort of comment.[/QUOTE

    ^That. The game mechanics are much more important than just calculating damage taken, without considering any other factors 6 giants are better than a golem etc.


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    Quote Originally Posted by iLLpluminati View Post
    He in fact did leave out a few variables, but the ideology is brilliant. Certainly not a good reason to disparage the post. Nice work OP, I imagine the math took a considerable amount of time.
    Thanks! I appreciate the support.

    Quote Originally Posted by clashfan321 View Post
    You included wall breakers in the calculation for the golem's housing space efficiency, but that overly diminishes the big problem golems have with walls. At best, your 12 wall breakers will open up a path for your golems to reach the core, but they definitely won't get the golems past the core and into the back half of the base. Lava hounds are able to reach the entire base, which is a major advantage over golems that won't show up in a straightforward mathematical breakdown. There's also the smaller but still significant factor that lava hounds move faster than the troops they tank for, while golems are the slower than the troops they tank for and oftentimes let a couple troops die before they can catch up and start tanking deeper defenses.
    Even if one brings 21 wall breakers for 3 golems, golems still have a large lead over hounds (golem will end up scoring about 0.1 per housing space). For golems to be equal to hounds, one would have to bring 14 wall breakers for each golem, which is more than enough. The fact that hounds move faster than balloons means that the troop composition is OP, not the troop itself.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gama321 View Post
    What idealogy is brilliant? I pointed out to the OP that such an approach is fundamentally flawed unless everything is incorporated which is pretty close to impossible.
    It is impossible to incorporate everything, which is why I tried to incorporate as much as I could. Yes, my approach is far, far, far from being close to perfect. However, such a large discrepancy between the tankiness of the hound and the golem as an estimate must mean something for actual gameplay.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben1234 View Post
    The game mechanics are much more important than just calculating damage taken, without considering any other factors 6 giants are better than a golem etc.
    Given that both golems and lava hounds deal a negligible amount of damage, it is safe to assume that hounds (disregarding pups) and golems serve no purpose other than to tank. No one brings hounds or golems into a raid to deal damage.
    Last edited by X7386; March 22nd, 2015 at 06:25 AM.
    X7

    CoC Level 109 | TH 9 | TWSS | Surgical Hog User

    Lava Hounds aren't OP, only laloon(ion). See the math | Valks > PEKKAs

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    If you remember that 14 wbs dont negate walls at all and would barely get you in the core, the fact that air raids can be over twice as quick as ground raids, and that loons that target defences would quickly neutralise the threat and limit dps, then even under your simplistic model the numbers would be much different. Also taking out xbows, the most prominent dps defence in the game, doesnt seem very smart.

    Also seeing as how hounds and golems are used together they are obviously not substitutes and so the comparison itself is faulty. If yiu want to judge whether the hound is op or not you have to look at the hound itself. Yes, of course it is the troop army that is op and not the individual troop, spamming 9 hounds wont do you any good. Why is the army op? Because of hounds, so hounds are op.

    The hound could be nerfed in a way that isnt even reflected in your model, it doesnt have to be something that makes the hound go down quicker per se.

    Personally I am starting to doubt the hound will be nerfed in a significant way, I think a new ground troop is more likely. An objective way of saying the hound is OP is that most three stars in high-level play use hounds for the main attack, that cannot be denied and that is exactly what the problem is.

  10. #10
    Millennial Club TheDevilsLuck's Avatar
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    Golems are better tanks by your calculations. So? The most ignored part is what the tank is protecting. The tank is worthless without backup, so what do they protect? Golems protect generally wizards, witches, valks, pekkas, and heroes. Hounds protect balloons and minions. Ballons are the only troop there that specifically targets defenses. The hound protects a more valuable asset to raiding, so the hound is by nature more powerful because of its company.

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