Statistics regarding loot (NOT an opinion thread)

[perkunas]

Updated Saturday 10/25
*** I have added some data for M3 (2600-2650 cups) ***


MODS: thank you for agreeing to give this thread a chance to stand-alone!

VISITORS: please be very selective if you are going to post responses. Constructive responses are helpful (especially if you have data to add to the discussion). The mods have told me that if this thread devolves into complaints, name-calling and bickering, then it will get (re-)merged into the "1 and only loot" thread to die a quick death!







I invite everybody to gather some data and contribute to this thread. You can record as much or as little data as you like (though smaller datasets have less significance).

This thread is not meant to be a discussion of personal opinion regarding loot, but rather a repository of data regarding loot availability based on quantitative measurements. Feel free to contribute if you have data (numbers) that are of interest to the community. For now, this information is really just a baseline measurement of loot in a very specific trophy-range.

How I record data:

I simply enter data into an Excel spreadsheet. I truncate all data to the nearest-thousand below the actual value. So elixir of 124999 would be recorded as 124k, actual gold of 84382 would be recorded as 84k. Hence, my averages are all a bit lower than an exact value. If you are a number-weenie, feel free to criticize my methods or add 500-1000 to all averages shown below.

What data I record:

First, I record the number of trophies I have when I begin my search. Once searching, I record both gold and elixir available from every base I search (I should start recording DE but it gets cumbersome). After the eventual battle, I have the total # of searches it took me to find a suitable opponent, as well as the actual gold / elixir / dark elixir that I raided. The one other metric that I track is the townhall level if and only if they have more than 100k elixir available.

Trophy Range & Dates of Data Collection:

All data collected between 9/23 - 9/26.

The Statistics

Master-3 Update:
(sorry I don't feel like doing the Excel stuff right now to make it look pretty)
After 131 searches:

Average Gold = 105k
Average Elixir = 97k
Average DE = 1400

Out of 131 searches, only 4 bases were below TH10 (3.0%).

...

Histogram data comparing gold & elixir in 3 different trophy ranges (2100's, 2200's and 1600's).
Screen Shot 2014-09-26 at [Sep 26] 11.45. AM.jpg


One metric that I track is the townhall level if the base has more than 100k elixir available. Here are some interesting statistics regarding bases with over 100k elixir:

In the 2230-2280 trophy range, 16.7% of all bases had over 100k elixir. But only 5.6% of all bases had over 100k elixir and were below TH10.

Compare that to the 1600's trophy range, where 12.4% of all bases had over 100k elixir, and 11.4% of all bases had over 100k elixir and were below TH10 (in many cases they are TH8). So if you are below TH10 yourself, then you'll see double (11.4% vs 5.6%) the number of "easy" bases offering good elixir loot if you drop to the 1600's.

Number of "Nexts":

Long story short, I was pressing next approximately:

• 84 times per raid in the 2100 range
• 38 times per raid in the 2200 range
• 38 times per raid in the 1600 range

[xBryce]

Nice job taking the time to do this. It gives me a good look at the overall loot in and around crystal.

[dragonhealers]

Wow. About as indepth as it gets guys

second!!

[lionheartferrer]

MODS: please do not merge this thread into that complaint-ridden dumpster that is the "1 and only loot thread." This thread contains data and is not meant to be an argument proving good or bad loot. It is simply here for people that like to look at numbers; there is nothing inherently positive or negative about this thread.

Statistics (over 1400 datapoints)

I invite everybody to gather some data and contribute to this thread. You can record as much or as little data as you like (though smaller datasets have less significance).

This thread is not meant to be a discussion of personal opinion regarding loot, but rather a repository of data regarding loot availability based on quantitative measurements. Feel free to contribute if you have data (numbers) that are of interest to the community. For now, this information is really just a baseline measurement of loot in a very specific trophy-range.

How I record data:

I simply enter data into an Excel spreadsheet. I truncate all data to the nearest-thousand below the actual value. So elixir of 124999 would be recorded as 124k, actual gold of 84382 would be recorded as 84k. Hence, my averages are all a bit lower than an exact value. If you are a number-weenie, feel free to criticize my methods or add 500-1000 to all averages shown below.

What data I record:

First, I record the number of trophies I have when I begin my search. Once searching, I record both gold and elixir available from every base I search (I should start recording DE but it gets cumbersome). After the eventual battle, I have the total # of searches it took me to find a suitable opponent, as well as the actual gold / elixir / dark elixir that I raided. The one other metric that I track is the townhall level if and only if they have more than 100k elixir available.

Once I have enough data, I can show information regarding # of bases over XXX amount of (gold or elixir). So I'll be able to say, XX% of all bases have more than 150k gold available, or YY% of all bases have more than 180k elixir available.

The Statistics
[all data recorded on Monday 9/22 and Tuesday 9/23, cups between 2139-2190]

The image below contains histogram-data for 626 searches, broken down into ranges of 33k:

In summation of the excel screenshot posted below:

82% of all bases had < 100k gold
86% of all bases had < 100k elix

91% of all bases had < 133k gold
92% of all bases had < 133k elix


Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at [Sep 23] 7.59. PM 1.jpg


Number of Searches:

I use a balloonion army with 16-20 loon and the rest are minions. I mostly farm DE and I typically expect to find at least 1500 DE per raid, but I will oftentimes hit bases if I believe I can successfully take home 300k combined (meaning I don't attack every base w/300k combined resources, but rather when I think that I will actually obtain 300k+).

1442 "nexts" over the course of 17 raids = 84.8 "nexts" per raid

84.8 * 750 gold per next = 63.6 k gold to find an opponent


Elixir:

I have recorded the amount of elixir available in my last 1442 searches, all in the 2140-2190 trophy range:

Average elixir available = 62,192

Percentage of bases with over 100k elixir available = 13.18%

Percentage of bases with over 100k elixir available AND below TH10 = 4.92%


Gold:

I have recorded the amount of gold available in my last 626 searches, all between 2140-2190 trophy range:

Average gold available = 69,938

I think it is just right for the Mods to move this to the "Only one and loot thread" because it is a topic about loot, not just about how good or bad it is. It would be unfair for other people whose thread is about loot but does not contain whinings and braggings about loot.

The solution for this would be to create another subforum titled "All about loot".

[Jeeei]

well done for taking the time to do this, big props
Has there been any SC response that loot is a. a problem, b. no problem?

[Masher1]

Agree this should NOT be included in the horror of a loot thread.

Well done to the OP and thank you for the work put into this.

[Lexthetrex]

That is some interesting data and I like how you took the scientific approach.

[Coyle]

I have never EVER had to press next 85 times to get a raid. If I did, I wouldn't be playing this game.

[Jeeei]

I have never EVER had to press next 85 times to get a raid. If I did, I wouldn't be playing this game.

And ur Th level?

[badfish1979]

I have never EVER had to press next 85 times to get a raid. If I did, I wouldn't be playing this game.

Have you compiled a list of real numbers and statistics like the OP? You could always share your statistics.