Loot is slowly getting drier for TH9/10 and why (MINDBLOWING)

[synchronizex]

I agree that developers need to get paid and people who gem loot will still gem them anyway. I believe most of SC's profits came from the top .1% who is clouding at champs.
There are multiple ways to fix them. Such as :

1. Level 12+ collectors (since we're maxed with 11 at TH7)
2. Clan village system
3. Mastermind's Quest system
4. New buildings and units (seriously it has been a year since the last witch and inferno tower update)
5. Longer boost period for mines and pumps (it's like no one uses them)
6. Instead of hiding inactives allow them to get raided. People play the game to raid anyway.

Yes to all !

[hawdog]

Guys... Problem is how to relay this message to the players around the world. Forum is only a tiny fraction of the community here...

Totally true.

There is another similar example about gas prices and gas companies. The summary is that if we all boycott buying gas for our vehicles for just 3 days, it will force gas companies to drive gas prices down. That's a very dumbed down version, but you get the idea.

But like hauw said, this requires 100% consumer participation, but you're only reaching a small fraction of that population who will participate, so it won't work.

[hauw]

SC has theoretical "control" over how much loot is injected into the economy by manipulating how many abandoned bases are considered active and are able to potentially generate $432k Gold each 24 hours for others to raid (it's a %age of that, something like 75-80%, because that's how much you can raid fro a collector, can't raid 100%. Don't quote me on the 75-80%).

Supposedly, there are enough abandoned bases in the game to make the "gold injected into game" figure higher than the "gold removed from the game" figure. The true numbers are only known by SC.

True. It would be similar to The Fed's quantitative easing.
Gold = dollars.
Inactives = the fed's dollar printing machine.
Stimulus = bringing more inactives into the queue.

Except that maybe it could be possible that they haven't realized this. Big problem is indeed big O.o
If a SC staff/mod ever read this, instead of paying ads and TV commercials, why not increase the longevity of the game?
Update brings back old players. Raiding keeps players playing.
Many of my TH8 friends are now TH9 and quitting because they see 30k~50k too much on the queue...

[nunchaku]

Totally true.
But like hauw said, this requires 100% consumer participation, but you're only reaching a small fraction of that population who will participate, so it won't work.

technically it can if everyone spreads the word. one clan here one youtube channel there.

its technically beneficial for everyone to have their th outside anyways.

put it on all the social media outlets, forums like reddit and have a spokesman like chief pat saying to put your th outside and you'll start seeing more people do it.

[hauw]

technically it can if everyone spreads the word. one clan here one youtube channel there.

its technically beneficial for everyone to have their th outside anyways.

put it on all the social media outlets, forums like reddit and have a spokesman like chief pat saying to put your th outside and you'll start seeing more people do it.

Alright so who has youtube channel or close friends with any streamer? Because i don't

[MormonJudy]

Your logic is sound, however, when you look at the massive number of players you see that there are many more inactive players then actives. Thus, even though it would take 6k days to max with only mines (excluding next cost, ect.) with the insane amount of inactive players, everybody could max base much quicker sucking the loot out of the mines and collectors. However to combat this, SC has decreased the chance of finding an inactive in search Q (not to mention that if there is an active base, with little money, at low cups, players would continually skip over this player, and never attack him, having many of these players can make finding juicy attacks take longer) So we are left with 2 choices, farm the inactives (which is difficult with them being pushed down the Q) Or we can farm the loot from actives that chose choice 1. Thus only the most active players are maxing bases (I'd guess less then 100 players have maxed via 100% farming). So yes, you are correct in the sense that the more active TH9s there are, the more difficult it will be to farm. But there will also be more TH8s to farm, TH9s and 10s that are now inactive. We would have to know the numbers behind how many of each TH were active vs inactive.

[Coathanger]

You need to subtract about 2,000,000,000 from what people will take out of the system to max out thier village. The majority of players will not farm walls beyond level 8/9 let alone max out thier village.

As others have pointed out you have omitted other sources of gold and costs. The most significant source being league bonus which can pump more gold into the economy than active players collectors(?) And cost being the next button.

Inactives are not removed, I would say they are managed. There is no relevant queue/line you have to next through to get them. Think of the queue like gum ball machine you cannot see. The inactive gum balls represent a small fraction of the gum balls in the machine. The machine is constantly mixed and spits out a gum ball when you hit next. The amount of Inactives are scarce compared to actives, sometimes you get lucky and get an inactive on the first pull and sometimes you will need to pull 30+ times.

There are a few things that are not being accounted for:

1. as you said in one of your follow ups, the amount of gold being wasted nexting is not accounted for in your calculations
2. The amount of gold gained as loot bonus from wars is not being accounted for in your calculations
3. the amount of gold gained as win reward from your league is not being accounted for in your calculations
4. most of the gold required is for walls. Most people are pretty happy progressing without maxing walls.
5. lastly and perhaps most significantly, people who quit the game are pushed to the bottom of the attack que. Supercell has stated that they want people raiding other active players which means that all those inactive accounts which are churning out resources by the billions are going to waste because they almost never appear in the attack que. so when you talk about people quitting the game you have to remove them from the equation for the most part.

I agreed with this post until you suggested all inactives almost never appear in the attack queue. I, and others, find Inactives frequently which is far from almost never. They have the largest impact on the economy with, perhaps, the exception of league bonuses.

[BoardGuest808888]

I agreed with this post until you suggested all inactives almost never appear in the attack queue. I, and others, find Inactives frequently which is far from almost never. They have the largest impact on the economy with, perhaps, the exception of league bonuses.

Yeah inactives are there, eventhough they're difficult to find. But, don't you think it scary that the largest impact on coc economy rely upon players becoming inactives ? It's like, just to keep the ball rolling, certain number of players need to become inactives ?

[TheJ]

Not really mind-blowing

These are all just assumptions, hundreds of players reach a new TH level everyday. This just has a some numbers but no actual evidence.

[GoWiWi]

I guess i'm dropping previous #1 because the post is getting too long @.@

1. Assuming all loot produced is raided every 12 hours [why do you make this assumption? I leave my th outside and 95% of the time only lose 1000 of each gold and elixir each time I get raided], one TH9/10 has to raid 5,908 other TH9/10's worth-of-a-day loot. Raiding TH8 is only viable for TH9. [This is false. It's viable for TH9s to also raid TH9/10s.]You get the wrong idea. Assuming you raid 5,098 another TH9/10 with 6 full and maxed gold mines it would take you to max TH 10. I never said anything about losing your loot.
   You still didn't explain why you assumed all loot produced is raided every 12 hours. It is not really clear why you keep saying you raid 5908 bases
   12 hours are the duration of a shield. 5,908 is 2.552b divided by 432k gold per day.
   Assuming that you and another inactive player plays the game and his/her 432k loot per day is raided completely every day, it would take 5,908 days for you if you produce 0 gold. If there are 10 players than it's 591 days, and so on.
   I almost never let my shield run all 12 hours, I break it to raid usually. And on average per day, I would say I lose about 15k gold/elixir per day. I normally lose 1k gold/elixir at a time each time I get raided. I break my shield 10-20 times a day.
   No it's not your shield but your victim's. Then again the shield doesn't really matter, what matters is the produce on per day basis.
2. If there is exactly 5,908 TH9 in the realm, only 1 of them progress to maxed TH10 on average per day. [There's more than 5,908 TH9s in the realm. And people spend gems on their bases, which you don't account for.]
   There is and i am merely stating the number. You also didn't account gold lost on nexting. And i'm not going to debate which is more, gold lost on nexting or gold produced by gemming. I am merely stating the number. All your calculations are based off of 432k gold per day. This is false for anyone who raids other bases for a profit in gold each day. If I can raid 4 million gold in a day, I am earning 4 mil + 432k gold (minus say 500k gold in next costs, but + 300k gold in league bonus), I'm still earning gold fast enough to keep all 5 builders busy, allowing me to max my base MUCH faster than if I only earn 432k gold a day.
   What if the number of TH9/10 raiders grows every day? Would you still able to loot the same amount every day? It's not about the raiding it's the clogging. Raiding 4 million today may not as easy as 4 million 1 year ago. Why it was easier 1 year ago again? Because less people is farming as a TH9/10 and more as TH8.
   I'm not sure why you are thinking that the number of TH9s and TH10s in the game would have an effect on how much you can raid. Basically the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. If you are rich yourself and you only raid other rich TH9s anf TH10s as a TH10 player, you will make 200k-300k gold per raid, multiplied by 10 raids a day for example. Like I said before, if you make 10 raids a day and earn say 2.5 mil gold, and it takes 2.5 bil gold to max TH10 from TH8, then 1000 days later you're a maxed TH10, not 6000 days as if you only collected from your own collectors.
   It's also a matter of advantage. It's impossible to progress if everyone is TH10, the next upgrade is 3 million, and no gemming is allowed. Since "clogging" exists in TH9/10 whereas maxing costs you 2.5 billion and the real difference is walls, advantage slowly dissapears. Over time, people would get to TH9/10, some will skip walls, and farming will get harder.
3. If more TH8 is turning into TH9 than TH9/10 quitting the game, getting loot is harder as the game goes on. [How do you figure that? More abandoned TH9/10 means better loot from their abandoned collectors. This means loot is actually EASIER to get.]
   Again you get the wrong idea. What i am saying is if there is 100 TH8 is turning to TH9/10 and 10 TH9/10 quitting, getting loot will get harder.
   But you neglect to consider that there are also new TH6s becoming TH7s each day, and TH7s becoming TH8s, it's an endless cycle with people getting stuck at TH10 eventually since that's the highest TH level right now. But who you encounter on raids is purely based on trophies, not on TH level, so you can encounter whichever types of bases depending on the trophy range you stay within.
   Which slowly clogs up to TH9/10... Remember this thread isn't about raiding, the core of the logic is the more TH9 is in the game, the more harder it is for other TH9s to progress the point of absolute scarcity.
   Why? Because we're competing and preying on the same target. It's G1/2 and C3 for everyone. Actually the same goes for every levels of TH, but then again it takes a lot and by a lot, i mean a whole new level of difficulty for TH 9 and TH 10 which is around 8 times of TH 8 and lower combined.
   
   Still confused? Compare this 3 scenario of the average ratio between active and inactives TH ranging from 8 to 10:
   1. 1 active TH10, 10 active TH9, 100 TH8, 300 inactives (10TH9, 50 TH8, 240 TH7)
   2. 10 active TH10, 30 active TH9, 80 active TH 8, 300 inactives (10TH9, 90 TH8, 200 TH7)
   3. 30 active TH10, 50 active TH9, 60 active TH8, 300 inactives (30TH9, 200 TH8, 70 TH7)
   I don't agree with the core logic that more TH9s in the game means it harder for other TH9s to progress. At TH9, I preyed upon raiding rich TH8s, I made a lot of money off of them, as well as off of abandoned TH9/10s. They could be inactive for just 24-48 hours and you can make a ton off their collectors.
   But then what would happen if all TH8 is TH9? Some of your previous TH8 preys were farming TH7, now they are TH9 preying your TH8 prey. Some of your TH9 peers are now TH10 preying at you. In order to avoid this, you have to gain "advantage" which is going ahead, moving to the next level.
   Sure more people would come and start fresh. But this works only in the case of TH8 and lower. In case of TH10 (end-game) you can't really gain an advantage, more people would turn into TH10, even if the number of TH9 stays the same it will be harder if there are more TH10 preying. And also in case of TH9 it would also be slightly harder if more people are turning into TH10 because TH10 can only farm TH9 and 10, you will have less TH9 target.

You guys psyched me out