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  Click here to go to the first staff post in this thread.   Thread: 3 star rates and other info of attack strats in coc world championship

  1.   Click here to go to the next staff post in this thread.   #81
    Quote Originally Posted by MyH4oBG View Post
    Do you even read what you write as it makes zero sense???
    If everyone has 50% hitrate that means everyone has 1 triple (1 out of 2 is 50%) which makes a perfect war...
    What I said makes perfect sense. It is very basic level statistics/probability.

    Each time you put in one attack on every base that hasn't yet been tripled, 50% of what is left will be tripled this time. You never reach the point where every base has been tripled.

    Obviously when there are odd numbers, sometimes it'll be up, sometimes down, and sometimes this will end up with every base tripled, but equally it often won't.

    All that is just on the basis of random 50% chance on each attack. Obviously, real clash isn't that random, and that will have an effect.

    You have to take account of the fact that the ones that don't get tripled the first time are likely to be the harder bases, so probably less than 50% the second time. You also have to take account of knowledge gained on first attack, which will increase the rate, but probably not enough to take it above the 50% again.

    But whatever dufferences those make, simple maths says that a 50% chance on every attack does not mean 100% when you have two attacks each.

  2. #82
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    Let’s try this logic and see if everyone gets it: If you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance it will come up heads. That does NOT mean that if you flip a coin twice that every time you will have at least one flip be heads. matter of fact you can even flip many more times and there is no guarantee that a heads will ever show up. That is all Ajax and others were trying to say.
    OP Defense: Any defense the poster doest’t like or know how to work around, nullifies their attack or denies them their rightful three star.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ajax View Post
    What I said makes perfect sense. It is very basic level statistics/probability.

    Each time you put in one attack on every base that hasn't yet been tripled, 50% of what is left will be tripled this time. You never reach the point where every base has been tripled.

    Obviously when there are odd numbers, sometimes it'll be up, sometimes down, and sometimes this will end up with every base tripled, but equally it often won't.

    All that is just on the basis of random 50% chance on each attack. Obviously, real clash isn't that random, and that will have an effect.

    You have to take account of the fact that the ones that don't get tripled the first time are likely to be the harder bases, so probably less than 50% the second time. You also have to take account of knowledge gained on first attack, which will increase the rate, but probably not enough to take it above the 50% again.

    But whatever dufferences those make, simple maths says that a 50% chance on every attack does not mean 100% when you have two attacks each.

    Do you remember how you started with the statement that math says its 75%, then you went up to 87.5%, now you say sometimes it will be 100% sometimes you gonna be real close.
    Well, soon you many come to the realization that 50% hitrate means 100% war every single time. GL

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by MyH4oBG View Post
    Do you remember how you started with the statement that math says its 75%, then you went up to 87.5%, now you say sometimes it will be 100% sometimes you gonna be real close.
    Well, soon you many come to the realization that 50% hitrate means 100% war every single time. GL
    Well this is hilarious as if we are getting perfect wars every time.There is a difference between practical approach and theoretical approach what if few players of your clan miss there war attack will you still come to forum and argue with Ajax about it.

  5.   Click here to go to the next staff post in this thread.   #85
    Quote Originally Posted by MyH4oBG View Post
    You only have 2 attacks, there is no 3rd or 4th round of attacks.
    If your first 20 attacks triple 10 bases, your next 20 attacks triple 10 bases again, not 5.
    That is not the way it works.

    First round, 20 attacks, 10 triples.

    You now have 10 bases untripled, 20 attacks left.

    Ok, so you hit those 10 bases once, another 5 tripled. You now have 5 bases left, 10 attacks left.

    So you attack those 5 bases. You then have either 2 or 3 untripled, with 5 attacks left. And so on.

    Of course, you could just say after the first round, OK, we'll just attack the remaining 10 twice each. But that will probably give worse results. Some bases would be tripled twice, while others wouldn't be tripled at all.

    Do it in multiple rounds, hitting each untripled base once in each round, you will probably end up with just 1 or 2 untripled at the end. Do it by just hitting each of the 10 left after first attack twice, you will probably end up with 3-5 untripled.

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ajax View Post
    That is not the way it works.

    First round, 20 attacks, 10 triples.

    You now have 10 bases untripled, 20 attacks left.

    Ok, so you hit those 10 bases once, another 5 tripled. You now have 5 bases left, 10 attacks left.

    So you attack those 5 bases. You then have either 2 or 3 untripled, with 5 attacks left. And so on.

    Of course, you could just say after the first round, OK, we'll just attack the remaining 10 twice each. But that will probably give worse results. Some bases would be tripled twice, while others wouldn't be tripled at all.

    Do it in multiple rounds, hitting each untripled base once in each round, you will probably end up with just 1 or 2 untripled at the end. Do it by just hitting each of the 10 left after first attack twice, you will probably end up with 3-5 untripled.

    This is not a game of flipping coins you know...
    And your example is extremely poor. You're literally saying you have a 50%-50% of perfect war. It all depends when the number of remaining bases becomes an odd number and if you are +-1
    Last edited by MyH4oBG; November 21st, 2020 at 07:25 PM.

  7.   Click here to go to the next staff post in this thread.   #87
    Quote Originally Posted by MyH4oBG View Post
    Do you remember how you started with the statement that math says its 75%, then you went up to 87.5%, now you say sometimes it will be 100% sometimes you gonna be real close.
    Nope. I never said that it would be 75% overall.

    I said that it would be 75% after the second round of attacks. That 2nd round being one attack on each of the so far untripled bases.

    If it is purely random, then each round of attacks will triple half the remaining bases.

    So after the third round, 87.5% tripled.
    After the 4th round, 93.75% tripled.
    Etc.

    Of course, in actual play you can't have exactly 87.5% tripled, as that would mean partial bases. So sometimes you triple the next number up, sometimes the next number down. Which is why you will sometimes get 100% wars.

    Well, soon you many come to the realization that 50% hitrate means 100% war every single time. GL
    There is no chance I will ever come to that realisation because it most certainly doesn't.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ajax View Post
    There is no chance I will ever come to that realisation because it most certainly doesn't.
    It is in this game called Clash of Clans where 50% hitrate literally means 1 triple in every 2 attacks. If every single player has 1 triple every single base will be tripled.
    You're talking about some imaginary theoretical game of chance that has absolutely no relevance.

  9.   Click here to go to the next staff post in this thread.   #89
    Quote Originally Posted by MyH4oBG View Post
    This is not a game of flipping coins you know...
    Of course I know that. As I made perfectly clear previously when talking about the other things affecting 2nd and later attacks.

    And your example is extremely poor. You're literally saying you have a 50%-50% of perfect war. It all depends when the number of remaining bases becomes an odd number and if you are +-1
    Yep. That's about it.

    TBH, I'd be surprised if it were that close for any but the ultra elite, because I think the fact it is harder bases that didn't go down initially outweighs the benefits of seeing previous attacks for most of us.

    Not sure why you think that makesbit extremely poor.

  10. #90
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    I give up. I will flip a coin next time I'm attacking to determine whether I triple or not, got it.

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