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Thread: Someone explain this frustrating phenomenon of BB

  1. #1
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    Someone explain this frustrating phenomenon of BB

    We've all been there with losing streaks but one phenomenon I can't understand is this:

    -You push up ladder slowly, working your way up, losing some winning some etc... Nothing crazy and you aren't a top player by no means. 4200, then 4400, etc... Win 3 lose 1/2, Win all 3 etc..

    -But then hit the losing streak brick wall. As I have been pushing up ladder, people are getting an average of 65/2 star through 4300-4800 (at this point in the season). Then all of a sudden everyone is getting 90/2 star even 3 stars for 6-10 games straight dropping you lower than where previous players were only getting 60/2 stars previously. Now as you drop lower and lower (technically easier opponents by design) it seems these "easier" opponents are staying consistent and still getting high percentage attacks. Now you're back down to 4400 and these players who were typically getting one stars and low two stars in this range are still getting high percentage 2 star attacks...the trend continues until finally you get the one opponent that screws up, then you finally end the streak.

    -Then boom you push back up regularly with opponents getting the typical low 2 stars as explained with the odd person getting a 3 star or high percentage 2 star to take the win (as explained before you win 3 lose 1/2). All this before it happens again and again. Now you're back up to 4800 where the win/lose seems more consistent with players getting a consistent mix of poor/decent/good attacks as opposed to all good attacks when you're on this losing streak.

    Is there some type of mathematical explanation of why this occurs in a PVP game or is by design? Anyone who's played builder base regularly must have noticed this? Not meant to be a "conspiracy" thing, I'm curious why this occurs and what the explanation is with a PVP game

  2. #2
    Fresh Spawn
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    Probably depends on the time of day. I usually score easier wins in the morning.

  3. #3
    Centennial Club marrvin's Avatar
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    Actually that never happens to me because I use following countermeasurements:

    a) if the same base layout gets wrecked 3 times in a row I switch to another one (even if I win)
    b) after losing more than like 120 tropies since attack session start I take a break from attacking until next clock tower avail often paired with checking replays to modify mines/traps in my bases

    In the end I play for fun and not frustation

    -- marrvin
    Disclaimer: I do not work for SuperCell. I am not related to SuperCell in any way. I do not state any facts. All statement published by me are my opinions based on observations or just my guesses.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pjecki View Post
    Probably depends on the time of day. I usually score easier wins in the morning.
    ^ this has a lot to do with it IMHO. If i attack in the morning, i have an easier time winning then when i play at night. Last night i had two straight 100% ties, i have not had that since i was BH5. Then i lost like 75% 2 stars to 85% 2 stars. So i turned it off and rolled the first base i attacked this morning for my 3rd win.

    I get it though. There are times when i feel like i'll never lose and times i feel like i'll never win. Even if i'm boosting i'll turn it off if i lose like 4 in a row. It happens.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Nutty31383's Avatar
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    As you say OP, it happens to us all... There are days where I go 3-0, sometimes its because I just steamroll my opponents and other times its because my opponents put up 1* attacks. I have also had days where I go 3-(10+), taking me over an hour to get my three wins and making me want to smash my phone against the wall.

    I see this coming down to two primary things, probability and your trophy count. Obviously, you sit in a player pool of stronger players at higher trophy counts and so have to perform to get your wins. In addition to the player pool, probabilistically speaking, you could get matched with players who tend to prefer air/ground or players with base layouts of which you are very familiar/unfamiliar (or your opponent has tweaked their layout to give you a nasty surprise). There is also the chance that the AI of you/your opponent's troops/defenses will do something that just flat-out botches your/your opponent's attack (my favorite are the air bombs that ignore the dropship right on top of it to one-shot the entire kill-squad of minions). When I consider how often I have these 3-0 or 3-10 days (they are rare; I usually get my wins with 4-6 attacks on my main), the probabilities seem right to me.

    There are obviously other factors to consider (I do think time-of-day plays a role and your "tilt-level" after a couple frustrating attacks) but I think a lot can be explained just considering the randomness that goes into BB match-ups. It can be extremely frustrating or work entirely in your favor. Just depends on the day.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Rizzob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mahchine View Post
    We've all been there with losing streaks but one phenomenon I can't understand is this:

    -You push up ladder slowly, working your way up, losing some winning some etc... Nothing crazy and you aren't a top player by no means. 4200, then 4400, etc... Win 3 lose 1/2, Win all 3 etc..

    -But then hit the losing streak brick wall. As I have been pushing up ladder, people are getting an average of 65/2 star through 4300-4800 (at this point in the season). Then all of a sudden everyone is getting 90/2 star even 3 stars for 6-10 games straight dropping you lower than where previous players were only getting 60/2 stars previously. Now as you drop lower and lower (technically easier opponents by design) it seems these "easier" opponents are staying consistent and still getting high percentage attacks. Now you're back down to 4400 and these players who were typically getting one stars and low two stars in this range are still getting high percentage 2 star attacks...the trend continues until finally you get the one opponent that screws up, then you finally end the streak.

    -Then boom you push back up regularly with opponents getting the typical low 2 stars as explained with the odd person getting a 3 star or high percentage 2 star to take the win (as explained before you win 3 lose 1/2). All this before it happens again and again. Now you're back up to 4800 where the win/lose seems more consistent with players getting a consistent mix of poor/decent/good attacks as opposed to all good attacks when you're on this losing streak.

    Is there some type of mathematical explanation of why this occurs in a PVP game or is by design? Anyone who's played builder base regularly must have noticed this? Not meant to be a "conspiracy" thing, I'm curious why this occurs and what the explanation is with a PVP game
    Statistics and probabilty.

    Let's assume every match is a coin flip. You'll win about 50% on average, but you won't alternate heads/tails. You might get a streak of a bunch of heads (or tails) in a row. Maybe even 8, or 10.

    In the ladder system, you will still end up winning about 50% once the season settles after a week or two (except top players, those that are artificially low, or artificially high due to power potion). While there is skill and variance in your attacks, which makes it not directly a coin flip, there is still statistical variance that will send you on losing or winning streaks.

    Of course, it's human nature to weigh personal anecdotal evidence on small sample sizes ahead of the statistical realities of a ladder system, as it's how humans evolved to survive. I would say, don't worry about it, and take a break after losing 3 in a row (or so), so that you don't get frustrated and have it negatively impact your future attacks.

    And, FWIW, I seem to have better luck in the mornings lately, but not too long ago I was doing better in the evening.
    Last edited by Rizzob; August 8th, 2019 at 03:14 PM. Reason: ninja'd by Nutty :-)

  7. #7
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    It's called --- bad luck
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  8. #8
    Forum Elder Himewad's Avatar
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    It’s a conspiracy man ... everyone is out to get you

  9. #9
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    I agree with most people where they say "easier" wins happen in the morning and I've noticed this too.

    Another point I'd like to clear up is I'm strictly refering to my opponents attack percentages (which I've personally observed). I think a lot of people mixed in my attack or strictly winning/losing but what I'm referring to is the sudden string of high percentage attacks by my opponents regardless of what I'm scoring. Yes they tie into a win/loss but main point I'm trying to make is the string of high percentage attacks against my base past the point where people were typically getting low 1 or 2 stars (when I pushed up trophies past that point where now my base is being decimated at that same point and even at a lower trophy rank)

    Most of the responses make sense and really clarify why, the sudden string may be "bad luck".

  10. #10
    Senior Member Rizzob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rizzob View Post
    And, FWIW, I seem to have better luck in the mornings lately, but not too long ago I was doing better in the evening.
    Of course I had to say that yesterday, and this morning my mini (low 4000s, mostly lvl7 defenses) got tripled 5 times in 8 battles. ―\_(ツ)_/―

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