Master and Champs demotions vs promotions - I don’t think the math works

[Tosti111]

SC has told us that in Master and Champs CWL that only 1 clan will be promoted and that 2 clans will be demoted in each 8 clan grouping each season. When I do the math it appears that if there were 80 clans as an example in Masters 1 this season, that would equal 10 groups of eight. 10 clans would finish first and move out of M1 leaving 70 clans. 20 clans would move down into M1 from champs making a total of 90 clans. 20 more clans would be demoted from M1 downwards leaving 70. Result is that M1 just reduced in size by 10% this season. What happens next season? Well, the 70 clans has 9 that move up leaving 61, 18 drop from above and 18 drop down below M1, leaving 61 again.

There must be something I am missing because if this continues over time, Almost ALL clans will migrate out of Master and Champs into the tiers below leaving a fairly huge hole in the top six leagues. Can someone please help me understand what I am missing?

[JusMe]

This is exactly what SC seem to want: CWL is meant to cater to the 'needs' of a very, very, very, very, very, very (add a few very's here) tiny elite portion of the players.

Because, you ask? Because that's where the eSports money is. That's where more exposure, and potentially more (paying) players can be found. For the rest, it seems the multitude of problems with CWL that exist, the current tiers, the mishaps, the manipulation and the other loopholes - they are swept under rug and not talked about.

[Tosti111]

This is exactly what SC seem to want: CWL is meant to cater to the 'needs' of a very, very, very, very, very, very (add a few very's here) tiny elite portion of the players.

Because, you ask? Because that's where the eSports money is. That's where more exposure, and potentially more (paying) players can be found. For the rest, it seems the multitude of problems with CWL that exist, the current tiers, the mishaps, the manipulation and the other loopholes - they are swept under rug and not talked about.

Well the good news is the math I learned 40 years ago still works. Doesnt mean I like the result, but at least I haven’t lost my math skills.

That means Crystal 1 is going to be a huge bottleneck over time and it will swell and be filled with many M3 clans that have been demoted feasting on the Crystal1 residents and those newly promoted to Crystal1. As lower tiers upgrade and progress, theywill push into Crystal1 and they will stall there. Last place you want to be in a battle is in no-man’s land in the middle and that sounds exactly what Crystal 1 will become.

[raja1]

Yeah, u r half correct. Number of clans will reduce in higher leagues (if there are same number of clans right now, which isn't completely true) until the point that number of demotions is more than number of promotions and then it will reach an equilibrium, where both demotions and promotions are same. But this point is not zero.

According to me (slightly based on my maths and data shared by Onyx), the current distribution is very close to the equilibrium point.

The key here is that number of clans reduces by demotions in current league and it increases by promotions in a lower league. So, these two will be entirely different.

Master 3 and above will be like a pyramid structure with each higher league having lesser number of clans. Champion 1 will host only 0.1% of clans. Total clans in top 6 tiers are less than 10%.

[Tosti111]

Yeah, u r half correct. Number of clans will reduce in higher leagues (if there are same number of clans right now, which isn't completely true) until the point that number of demotions is more than number of promotions and then it will reach an equilibrium, where both demotions and promotions are same. But this point is not zero.

According to me (slightly based on my maths and data shared by Onyx), the current distribution is very close to the equilibrium point.

The key here is that number of clans reduces by demotions in current league and it increases by promotions in a lower league. So, these two will be entirely different.

Master 3 and above will be like a pyramid structure with each higher league having lesser number of clans. Champion 1 will host only 0.1% of clans. Total clans in top 6 tiers are less than 10%.

Agreed, you need the pool below each tier to be at least 2x bigger to ensure equilibrium. Creates an interesting number though if we assume say 240 clans in C1, 480 in C2, 960 in C3, 1920 in M1, 3840 in M2 and 7680 in M3 and at least 15,320 clans in Crystal 1 and the same 15,320 in each tier below that.

[Tonyla]

Well the good news is the math I learned 40 years ago still works. Doesnt mean I like the result, but at least I haven’t lost my math skills.

That means Crystal 1 is going to be a huge bottleneck over time and it will swell and be filled with many M3 clans that have been demoted feasting on the Crystal1 residents and those newly promoted to Crystal1. As lower tiers upgrade and progress, theywill push into Crystal1 and they will stall there. Last place you want to be in a battle is in no-man’s land in the middle and that sounds exactly what Crystal 1 will become.

Yep you got that right. Getting ready to pack our bags for Crystal 1 . Good luck to current C1 residents when we descend with our TH 10less line ups lol

[zxparesh3]

SC has told us that in Master and Champs CWL that only 1 clan will be promoted and that 2 clans will be demoted in each 8 clan grouping each season. When I do the math it appears that if there were 80 clans as an example in Masters 1 this season, that would equal 10 groups of eight. 10 clans would finish first and move out of M1 leaving 70 clans. 20 clans would move down into M1 from champs making a total of 90 clans. 20 more clans would be demoted from M1 downwards leaving 70. Result is that M1 just reduced in size by 10% this season. What happens next season? Well, the 70 clans has 9 that move up leaving 61, 18 drop from above and 18 drop down below M1, leaving 61 again.

There must be something I am missing because if this continues over time, Almost ALL clans will migrate out of Master and Champs into the tiers below leaving a fairly huge hole in the top six leagues. Can someone please help me understand what I am missing?

I don't see here clans moving from M2 to M1. More number of clans demote from M1 to M2, next season more clans promote to M1 from M2. But overall there would some reduction in number of clans, so less congestion in higher leagues as compare to previous rules as SC intended.

[raja1]

Agreed, you need the pool below each tier to be at least 2x bigger to ensure equilibrium. Creates an interesting number though if we assume say 240 clans in C1, 480 in C2, 960 in C3, 1920 in M1, 3840 in M2 and 7680 in M3 and at least 15,320 clans in Crystal 1 and the same 15,320 in each tier below that.

Yes, u got this right, except that demotions in champion 1 is 3 instead of 2, so it will be 3 times of champion 2.

Assuming 240 at champ 1, the numbers in lower leagues would be 240, 720, 1440, 2880, 5760, 11520 and then 23040 for crystal, gold and silver leagues. Bronze will have very less clans.

Plus i guess a actual number would be slightly higher than 240. Currently it is around 800 in champ 1 and Darian expects it to settle around 1000.

[weazzley]

I did some calculations before, too:
https://forum.supercell.com/showthre...-true-champion

In these simulations, champs1 will slowly go down to about 100 clans (very long run), which is imho a very good number to determine the very VERY best clans in the world. Below that there will be 300 in champs2, 600 champs3 (factors like stated before).

The number in crystal1 will rise quite fast to about plus 30% in the next 5 seasons, but that means, most of the current inhabitants can stay there for a long time.
It will take 20 more seasons, until crystal1 will start shrinking for the first time, so dont worry about mass-demotions in the near future in crystal...
(The good thing about the champs tiers is, that they arent "full" at present, so the number of clans coming down from there isnt huge.)

I am very interested in the number of clans participation CWL altogether, the would make calculations more exact. Anyone to know?

[dave5872]

Don't waste a lot of time trying to look too far into the future because I will be really surprised if we don't get more tweaks to the system over the next few months.