Master and Champs demotions vs promotions - I don’t think the math works

[weazzley]

Thanks for your care, but I just like doing such things ;-)
And I wanted to show that there is no reason to worry for clans in the lower tiers. The strong clans coming down again are spreading to many more groups than there were before. Promotion will be harder in crystal1, but the chance of demotion will be more or less unchanged.

[Goldslaugher]

And guys in champs 1 are already complaining about the search times to get matched with 7 other clans, they ain't seen nothing yet I guess, may need longer then a 48 hour sign up period..lol

[OnyxDS]

Raja had it right.

Agreed, you need the pool below each tier to be at least 2x bigger to ensure equilibrium. Creates an interesting number though if we assume say 240 clans in C1, 480 in C2, 960 in C3, 1920 in M1, 3840 in M2 and 7680 in M3 and at least 15,320 clans in Crystal 1 and the same 15,320 in each tier below that.

I have 93 groups in Ch1 this time - I haven't checked how many actual clans that is, but a bit over 700. So those numbers are all higher. However the low league numbers, eg Silver/Gold, are a LOT higher that your 15k. Crystal is a bit smaller; it tapers from those numbers down somewhat.

However, at the moment, the league ratios are pretty close to 3:1 and 2:1, so the system is near equilibrium already. The only imbalances are the ratio C1:M3 and M3:M2 are a bit small, which would imply a flow of clans downwards there. HOWEVER, there's also a flow C3 > C2 > C1 as the upper crystal clans are smaller than the lower ones. And those 2 will balance each other out after a small surge in C1 numbers at the end of this season

[weazzley]

Thank you for the links in your signature, onyx!One will help me a lot estimating the league sizes.I wonder where you get the data from, are these open to public?

[OnyxDS]

Thank you for the links in your signature, onyx!One will help me a lot estimating the league sizes.I wonder where you get the data from, are these open to public?

All the data I'm using is harvested from the SC API, so yes it's public in theory.

In practice there are complications, not least of which is that nothing in a clan or league-group's API data actually tells you which of the 18 league tiers they are in. So deducing that requires some Clever Stuff™. You can also only search by clan tag or name, so need to construct a way of searching to find them all...

[Thegreatpuma]

Yes, like i said after this change was announced they are pushing clans down. which is going to make everything crazier in Crystal.

[Iftheskyisblue]

Onyx love your work. i have been looking for this analysis since CWL started.

Thank you!

[Bobenzochris]

Can I clairfiy 1 thing. From champions 2 to champions 1.is promote top team only. Or top 2 team. Is the balancing changes up

[Kannukanhashubhang]

Yes, the top 1st clan will be promoted to champ 1.

[littledoctor]

I don't think this change is going to push clans down, because there are still many more clans below than above. It will create a large ratio between league N and league N+1, starting from C1.