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Thread: The bottom of the CWL data mine - Part IV - start times miscellaneous

  1. #11

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    I agree with Tosti. If your clan is strong enough to be in M/Ch now and seeing sensible(ish) matches, then it will still be strong enough to face similar clans in 6 months time, so will still be facing clans that are largely non-rushed, use most attacks etc.

    The downside however is that as the current top 6 leagues effectively get compressed into 5 then 4 etc leagues, it means each league becomes a bit wider in terms of strengths. And there's already some pretty big gaps between them, eg between M2 and M1

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnyxDS View Post
    I agree with Tosti. If your clan is strong enough to be in M/Ch now and seeing sensible(ish) matches, then it will still be strong enough to face similar clans in 6 months time, so will still be facing clans that are largely non-rushed, use most attacks etc.

    The downside however is that as the current top 6 leagues effectively get compressed into 5 then 4 etc leagues, it means each league becomes a bit wider in terms of strengths. And there's already some pretty big gaps between them, eg between M2 and M1
    Those gaps may level out even more though as clans go through the demote/promote cycle. I dont think weve seen the natural levelling fullyplay out yet ( not saying it ever wll level out but its still a work in progress right now). I dont see anything in the data that would lead me t9 believe that the values or distribution patterns will change overmuch, some small incremental adjustments to values, yes, but not much more than that.

  3. #13
    Forum Veteran Shadrach777's Avatar
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    Granted I was taking a snapshot of time and extrapolating my estimation of numbers based on the bar graph. People should still be leveling up their THs as time marches forward. From the promotion/demotion model and my guess at numbers, it shows the current number of people in champion 1 - 3 all being in champion 1 by April 2020. Over year should be more than enough time for everyone to become TH12, possibly max TH12s based on magic items.
    Last edited by Shadrach777; January 31st, 2019 at 06:36 PM. Reason: I'm bad with spreadsheets
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  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadrach777 View Post
    Granted I was taking a snapshot of time and extrapolating my estimation of numbers based on the bar graph. People should still be leveling up their THs as time marches forward. From the promotion/demotion model and my guess at numbers, it shows the current number of people in champion 1 - 3 all being in champion 1 by September. It also shows that September is the month where the pool size of champion 1 overtakes the pool size of champion 2. If another tier past champion is not opened up by December, then Champion 1 pool size exceeds Master 1 and a huge clump starts forming in Champion 1. By February of 2020, everyone in Master 1 through Champion 1 will be compressed into Champion 1, but a year should be more than enough time for everyone to become TH12, possibly max TH12s based on magic items.
    Are you accounting for demotions in your estimate? My estimate shows approximately 5400 in champs 1-3 for season 4 and by Dec 2019, 3800 in champs 1.

    For folks like us, whose clan rank might be roughly 40000th place, around the 60th percentile of masters 3, if we improve (bases and skills) at the same rate as everyone else then we'll stay about 40000th place and be (by my estimate) around the 60th percentile of masters 2 in Dec 2019.

    The question we will be asking ourselves over the next few weeks is, how much of a payoff would it give us to rush all our 11s to 12? If it moved us to 30000th place, that puts us solidly in masters 1 territory. I'm not sure it's worth it.
    Last edited by littledoctor; January 31st, 2019 at 05:47 PM.

  5. #15
    Forum Veteran Shadrach777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by littledoctor View Post
    Are you accounting for demotions in your estimate? My estimate shows approximately 5400 in champs 1-3 for season 4 and by Dec 2019, 3800 in champs 1.

    For folks like us, whose clan rank might be roughly 40000th place, around the 60th percentile of masters 3, if we improve (bases and skills) at the same rate as everyone else then we'll stay about 40000th place and be (by my estimate) around the 60th percentile of masters 2 in Dec 2019.

    The question we will be asking ourselves over the next few weeks is, how much of a payoff would it give us to rush all our 11s to 12? If it moved us to 30000th place, that puts us solidly in masters 1 territory. I'm not sure it's worth it.
    Yeah, my math was off and I fixed my previous post. Dragging stuff incorrectly on spreadsheet. We won't ever clump into champion 1. Depending on how you guestimate the initial numbers for January, yes your claim is reasonable.

    We decided to merge with another clan so we could have 20 or so TH12. We are in Master 2 right now, and should easily promote into Master 1 by the end of the season. I'd personally like to park in Champion 3 to maximize personal medals. As a clan we will probably decide if we want to farm in Master 1 or farm in Champion 3. We will see, things are fluid.
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  6. #16
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    Another awesome post! Thanks so much for all four!

    Quote Originally Posted by OnyxDS View Post
    What baffled me though was the big spikes at every multiple of 5. It looks like maybe there's a big chunk of clans out there who haven't yet (in season 4) figured out that they can enter any number, and might be leaving players out to round down to a multiple of 5!?
    Could just be that a certain percentage of clans have a stable set of players for running regular wars, and when sCWL comes along, they just run with the exact same group.

    I bet if we could poll the membership sizes of all clans in the game (and/or the number of active players per clan) we'd see similar spikes on the 5s.

    Sandy
    Last edited by Sandy2; January 31st, 2019 at 08:13 PM.
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  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandy2 View Post
    Another awesome post! Thanks so much for all four!



    Could just be that a certain percentage of clans have a stable set of players for running regular wars, and when sCWL comes along, they just run with the exactly same group.

    I bet if we could poll the membership sizes of all clans in the game (and/or the number of active players per clan) we'd see similar spikes on the 5s.

    Sandy
    That may be part of it, I think the other part is the minis may play a part as well.

  8. #18
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    It's interesting to see that league sizes are actually very small in Master league. Given that there is pretty much no inflation, clans in crystal may never make it to Champion.

    As per my earlier estimation, after an year of changes, considering equal number of clans in each league, 25% of clans in Bronze moved to Silver and 25% of clans in Master moved to Champion, and no changes at Gold and Crystal leagues.

    I was just hoping that Master leagues are much higher than Other league so that there is little bit more of inflation, but with your data, it feels weird. Gold and crystal leagues are where most people will settle. Progression to higher leagues just seem impossible.

  9. #19
    You Deserve a Masters Degree in Clash Of Clans for your research threads

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by raja1 View Post
    I was just hoping that Master leagues are much higher than Other league so that there is little bit more of inflation, but with your data, it feels weird. Gold and crystal leagues are where most people will settle. Progression to higher leagues just seem impossible.
    It is not that hard to get better than the typical clan in gold, and maybe even crystal. I think clans in the middle who seriously try to get better, and who make progress on upgrading their bases, will succeed in rising.

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