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Thread: Delvings in the CWL data mine I - Stars

  1. #1

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    Delvings in the CWL data mine I - Stars

    Disclaimer: this is NOT official data; all the charts below are from data I sampled using the API, based on pulling war results pretty much randomly off the system. It was quite a large sample, so the data should be representative, unless of course I messed up my calculations

    CWL data index: 1: Stars and winning margins | 2: Attacks and 3* rate | 3: Average league rosters | 4: Start times and other

    During the last CWL I pulled a fair bit of data to see if there was anything interesting I could see about the nature of the leagues and the differences between them. For a first attempt I had a look at the war scores in various leagues, and how it varied. I'm going to present what I found without a llot of commentary, so you can see what you make of it...

    So, for example, in Champs 1 this is how often each possible score occured. The number along the bottom is a possible star score for a clan; and the height of the bar is how often that score happened:


    Unsurprisingly most war scores are about 30 - ranging maybe 27-35. The stragglers 0-20 are mostly clans that got thumped by the octopus part way through; and 1 clan that seemed to enter a light (not all TH12 roster) and got thumped by double digits every time.

    And here's how the distribution changes going down through the leagues:






    Winning margins
    Next I had a look at the winning margin in each war - ie the difference in the star scores of the 2 clans. This is an indication of how close the war was.

    The reason that 0 is less common than 1 is because a 1 difference could be in either direction. So if clan A scores 30, then a 0 difference happens only if clan B scores 30. But a 1 difference occurs if clan B scores 29 OR 30 - so it's kind of twice as likely.







    I also did a summary across all leagues, putting wars into a few groups:
    • 0-2 star difference (very exciting)
    • 3-6 difference (good war)
    • 7-10 difference (rather lopsided)
    • 11-20 difference (pretty much one sided)
    • 20+ difference (seems like 1 clan didn't even bother)
    • "no contest": this is used instead of the above if BOTH clans scored under 10 (ie neither bothered), or, in crystal and above only, both scored over 40 (ie they probably conspired to use FWA bases). Ie this group were wars that probably didn't happen, although the final scores might have been very similar.




    Top leagues and fixed matches
    And just one final set of charts for now. This next chart is the LOSING score in each war in Champ 1:

    The purpose of this is to show up the win-traded wars about which there's been a lot of noise in the last week - these are wars where the losing score was something like 44 or 45. No clan can score that in a genuine all TH12 war. But it's a very small proportion of wars.
    It's also interesting that in most Ch1 wars, one clan or the other didn't get past 30. "2 stars wins wars"

    And here's the same chart for Champ 2, 3 and M1 (I've not done the low leagues this time):

    The scores are lower than Ch1 here - I guess that's why the other clans made it into Ch1 !
    Note that the 44s and 45s are a tiny number (barely visible on the chart)




    That's all for now!
    Last edited by OnyxDS; February 1st, 2019 at 11:23 PM.
    For info on CWL see: CWL survival guide and data posts: 1 (stars), 2 (3* rates), 3 (rosters), 4 (start times and other)
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  2. #2
    Village Maiden
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    Nice work!!
    Just 1 question: how a "losing score" can reach 45?
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  3. #3
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    Great stuff!
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  4. #4
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    Nice, good to see that we are not doing too bad in master 3 based in the stats above

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackDragonD View Post
    Nice work!!
    Just 1 question: how a "losing score" can reach 45?
    OK, technically that was a draw. My "losing score" is actually Minimum(score_A, score_B). So in case of an actual draw, the score is put on the chart.
    Last edited by OnyxDS; January 20th, 2019 at 04:00 PM.
    For info on CWL see: CWL survival guide and data posts: 1 (stars), 2 (3* rates), 3 (rosters), 4 (start times and other)
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnyxDS View Post
    OK, technically that was a draw. My "losing score" is actually Minimum(score_A, score_B). So in case of an actual draw, the score is put on the chart.
    Thanks for clarification. great work!
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  7. #7
    Forum Elder RagnarFurias's Avatar
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    Just beautiful to see results (Stars earned) keep getting more consistent as one climbs league tiers.

    I think graphs for lower tiers will still get better as more and more clans will go the their “right” tiers. Both very high/very low number of stars earned show those lower tier clans still suffer with mismatches and unwinnable wars, but I’m very sure things are already way better than season 1
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  8. #8
    Did you run 3 star rates?
    Contact SC here. Click here to see how trophies are calculated. My tips/thoughts on Legends here. My legends hope: 14 hours daily search limit to reduce advantage of account sharing; black clouds screen; Legends3 5000-5499 cups, Legends2 5500-5999, Legends1 6000+, while in clouds let us watch war, donate, do FCs, base design. Expand trophy range for matching down by 500 cups, reduce matching up by 500. Other suggested changes found here.

  9. #9
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    3 star rates for 12v12s in Champs would be interesting for sure.
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  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2222 View Post
    Did you run 3 star rates?
    Partially. That might be Part 2. It's a little more complex to extract as I need to drill down to the individual attacks. Ideally I'd also like to include lower leagues - but then it needs some sort of TH comparison.

    Having said that, it didn't change much from the numbers I had at the bottom of the day 2 or day 3 results list I put in the top 10 thread.
    For info on CWL see: CWL survival guide and data posts: 1 (stars), 2 (3* rates), 3 (rosters), 4 (start times and other)
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