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  Click here to go to the first staff post in this thread.   Thread: What are the odds?

  1. #1
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    What are the odds?

    Finished a 15 vs 15 war and ran into a draw. Ok youíre thinking, this is common, it happens all the time when both clans max stars in the war. I will agree if that was the case, but this war both my clan and our opponents both got 42 stars and the exact same percentage. Now that canít be common, I know itís not the first time this has occured, but what are the odds of this actually happening?

    143DCF2F-A2EC-4958-9373-AA28C9A7E454.jpeg
    Last edited by 63S10H8; 1 Week Ago at 09:29 PM. Reason: Added photo

  2.   This is the last staff post in this thread.   #2
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    Not sure what clan level has to do with it but that is pretty rare! At first I thought meant something else by 16v15 but still rare. The odds are quite slim but it does happen.

  3. #3
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    That's Incredible what are your feelings about this??
    Are you kinda happy to be apart of something so unique?

  4. #4
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    Neglecting all wars where one side gets 100%, let’s assume most wars end with 85% - 95% destruction. That’s a 10% range. Destruction is a 2 d.p. measure, 0.01%.

    0.01% / 10% is 1 in 1000.

    Something like 1 in 1000 wars should be expected to end in a draw, not counting 100% wars.

    Maybe there is a higher occurance of wars where each side missed a total of 1 building?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJVdestiny View Post
    That's Incredible what are your feelings about this??
    Are you kinda happy to be apart of something so unique?
    No distinct feeling other than shock, heck most of the clan was in shock/disbelief this occurred. With all the wars me and my fellow clansman have been in, this was a first for all of us.

  6. #6
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    Even with my maths background, I'm struggling to give you a number here.

    Forget the bottom 12 bases (80% total destruction):-
    3 bases on each side, all with over 50% 2 stars combining to achieve an extra 14.6% total destruction between them.

    To achieve exactly 94.6% total destruction those top 3 bases would need a combined % of 219% destruction (or 73% on each base on average), but that's not the question you are asking is it?
    What are the odds on both clans achieving the same % total destruction, regardless of whether it's 219% on the 3 bases, or 240% on those 3 bases.....

    George (above) assumes that 'most wars end with 85%-95%' destruction, but this range is clearly not wide enough in your case, as both your clan and your opponents averaged 73% over those last 3 bases.

    To be honest, I haven't got a clue,but I'd suggest the odds are greater than 1 in 1,000!
    Clan Name : SOUTH WEST 45, Clan Tag : #90LP2PL. Highest Win Streak 12!
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skrags View Post
    To be honest, I haven't got a clue,but I'd suggest the odds are greater than 1 in 1,000!


    Which means it likely happens several times a day.....
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thegreatpuma View Post
    Which means it likely happens several times a day.....
    It is still unique to that particular clan, which means their experiences have been extended just that little bit further.
    As to whether it will enhance or change anything for them going forward, that is very unlikely, but at least when it comes up again he can say "we been there".
    So far the actual odds, that is pretty irrelevant I would think. Just shows it can happen. An unfortunate way of 2 clans losing any streak they had, but is what it is. And am not advocating any extended discussion on a draw not counting against a streak. I firmly believe a draw should result in the end of any streak obtained prior to that draw.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skrags View Post

    George (above) assumes that 'most wars end with 85%-95%' destruction, but this range is clearly not wide enough in your case, as both your clan and your opponents averaged 73% over those last 3 bases.

    To be honest, I haven't got a clue,but I'd suggest the odds are greater than 1 in 1,000!
    For simplicity with the maths (% causing enough difficulty), I assumed a 10% spread for most results, and came up with 1 in 1000. If you assume a 100% spread (0% to 100%), the same maths give 1 in 10 000.

    Not all percentage destructions are possible, not all are equally likely. I think 99.99% destruction is impossible, but 99.98% can be achieved in a 50v50 war with one building missed. 5v5 war with one building missed I think is close to 99.80%. It depends on how many buildings per base. 5 TH3 vs 5 TH3 will have a much higher chance of a non-100% draw than 50v50 all TH12s all buildings on the map.

    In mature clan wars, I think 1 in 1000 is of the right order. I know that in our 200+ wars, we’ve never had a non-100% draw.
    Last edited by George1971; 1 Week Ago at 02:22 AM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by George1971 View Post
    For simplicity with the maths (% causing enough difficulty), I assumed a 10% spread for most results, and came up with 1 in 1000. If you assume a 100% spread (0% to 100%), the same maths give 1 in 10 000.

    Not all percentage destructions are possible, not all are equally likely. I think 99.99% destruction is impossible, but 99.98% can be achieved in a 50v50 war with one building missed. 5v5 war with one building missed I think is close to 99.80%. It depends on how many buildings per base. 5 TH3 vs 5 TH3 will have a much higher chance of a non-100% draw than 50v50 all TH12s all buildings on the map.

    In mature clan wars, I think 1 in 1000 is of the right order. I know that in our 200+ wars, weíve never had a non-100% draw.
    We had one a few months back 96.42% tie on % and a tieat 42 stars out of 45 in something upwards of 600-700 wars. It is rare but it can happen.

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