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Thread: Psst SC..I have a secret to tell you

  1. #21
    The thing is, if matchmaking didn't consider recent war performance, all clans are available to match all clans according to all other MM factors. The higher the recent war win performance, the more exponentially small the available clans to match becomes. If a clan has a war win streak of 20 or only 4 losses in the last 50 wars, there may be no clan in existance that you can match if recent war performance is truely supposed to work as intended. Thats why 90% of wars will be against < 5 win streak clans (or whatever recent war performance), and only 10% of wars will be against > 10 win streak clans.

    Percentages are fictional, but explains the idea.

  2. #22
    Centennial Club 23skidoo's Avatar
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    I've been one that believes that there is a change in the matchmaker after a ~5 win streak. It's just been so very consistent in our matches to ignore. Whether it's real or perceived, well I suppose that's the debate. Up until recently it was like clockwork for my clan, build our little 4 or 5 win streak, spin a new war, get thumped by a match that seems a few degrees in favor of the opponent. Wash, rinse, repeat.

    However, as we sit right now, we are at an 8 win streak with back to back 100% destruction. Both a first in the history of the clan. We are in a war right now which I believe we have the advantage. TH's, defenses, troops are all very even. We hold the hero advantage up top. So, this last run of wars doesn't follow my perceived '5 win streak = next war disadvantage'.

    As to the question about outmatching clans that are on win streaks, tough to say I guess, but we've beat about 3 clans in our little run with win streaks better than 5. Our current opponent has a streak of 0. Don't think that helps prove anything.

    It's hard to tell what the matchmaker does and doesn't do with it being tweaked fairly often as of late, but for my clan the recent matches have been almost exact TH matches, and when they are not and the opponent has a higher TH than us that base is either poorly engineered or just plain rushed. We have had to dodge a few power potions along the way (skill still matters).

    I've been wondering if total clan war record is taken into account for matches in some way. That doesn't follow with 'recent' war performance but changes are being made more often it seems. Anyway, just adding my clan's matching experiences to the pot as data points.

  3. #23
    This is true!

  4. #24
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    Late to the party on this thread but here's my two pence on the matter.

    Recent performance, from my experience, seems to be more of a factor, the more you win.
    It does seem to plateau though so if your clan is good enough, you will just march on regardless.

    Our war log is has a definite pattern of green and red.
    We might win 5 to 10 on the trot. The first few are meh matches and we crush the opponents. The more wins we string together, the tougher the opponents.

    By tougher, I mean better skilled.
    Once we reach 7 or 8 wins, the opponents change and we start to receive a handicap every war. This would be either in the form of "they have more max 11s/10s" or there are funny coloured TH's dotted all over their map.

    We eventually lose to one of these clans... maybe face another one the next war and lose that one as well... then we are back to rolling over weaker opponents until our recent performance turns green again.

    This has been a repeating factor for a long, long time now.

    Just lost two on the bounce and then the war finder matched us with a clan that I actually felt sorry for... 56-35 to us and they used all their attacks. It was done and dusted for us with 10 of our top attacks left.

    For me, I just want parity - I want a fair match where both clans have a good chance of winning.
    IMHO, recent war performance is too much of a factor.
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  5. #25
    Pro Member TheGame1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TankSinatra View Post
    The whole 5 win streak thing, I've never seen the evidence for it. If it were in place I'd expect to constantly be seeing clans with a precise 5 streak across the map from me.
    Anyone notice this effect from the other side, anyone getting served up softballs with 5 wins?
    We're on a 5 winstreak now, current war we have two 11's they have three, their heavier than us up top but their lower 10's and 9's are weak. Can easily see how we matched, doesn't look unfair at all, all down to how are 11's perform.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by SuperStorm103 View Post
    I know recent war performance is included it matching considerations. There is also one post by I think skrags maybe? Where he brought up the point that recent war performance may have nothing to do with winning or win streaks, but instead it might have to do with clans that loose a lot get easier match ups once in a while to get a win.

    If win streaks are supposedly so important, why are their clans with over 200 win streaks? I think it farm more likely that performance is based on a portion of your recent war log (both wins and losses) and potentially destruction. If your clan wins more then you loose with significantly, you might get a tougher match.

    Also, we have been on decent win streaks before like 8 or 9 and have been given ridiculously easy match up against a clan on a streak of 0.

    I honestly don't think win streaks have anything to do with determining match difficulty. But that is just my opinion and I am entitled to it just as you are to yours and that is fine.

    Consider this also, we have come a long ways since the "checkbox" statement you like to quote. There have been several major match maker changes in that time and countless minor tweaks. What makes you certain that something mentioned 2 years ago is even still accurate? There also seems to have been a significant change recently as well (a few weeks before the most recent update). As you said, I noticed a new trend in our wars and that the make up of them was significantly different. Enough so that I made a thread about it.

    The CWSF war has added confirmation to my theory of town hall matching (at least for th11's). As well as offense power matching (with regards to accounts with researched max troops and wardens).
    Nah win streak must be the major factor in the "recent war performance" nothing else can explain the drastic change in skill u usually face beween when u got 0 win streak vs when u are on high win streak.

    There is not many clans over 100 win streak that are active, most over are inactive and got their win streak b4 this was introduced. Those active and with a extreme win streak is mostly hard engineered or really skilled clans

    Yes of course u can face an opponent with very different win streak, the algorithm is flexible and try its best to get as much as possible similar but cant get everything right every time.

    It doesn't determine the skill lvl of a clan, just change the odds u get a skilled opponent if u are on a win streak by matching similar win streaks

    last major change to the mma was in august -17 but there been loads of minor updates and tweaks since then. The playstyle matching hasn't changed, most updates and tweaks are for that. I also notices a change about 2 months ago, I am guessing it has to do with the "power balance" darian told us about

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLandofNod View Post

    For me, I just want parity - I want a fair match where both clans have a good chance of winning.
    IMHO, recent war performance is too much of a factor.
    I want it to be fair on paper and then the more skilled clan wins. Any use of recent war performance is too much of a factor in my opinion.
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  8. #28
    Yeah! Nice idea.

  9. #29
    Pro Member nobeone's Avatar
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    Ooooh my pet subject!

    I agree win streak is not necessarily recent war performance but I think it reasonable to assume there is some link? I guess that there is some number that is generated based on how many wars you have won/drawn/lost in the past so many wars or days/weeks. It could be more subtle too, so perhaps it looks at percentage destruction and/or percentage of stars on the map you get. These would be decent ways to measure the war hardness of oppos. I speculate that number then gets added in to the war mm in some way to ensure if you always win/do well you get tougher oppos and if you always lose/do badly you get weaker oppos. Perhaps a multiplier between say 1.1 (win/do well) and 0.9 (lose/do badly) on the weights, who knows.

    There is no evidence I have seen that it tries to match win streak like we perceive it tries to match e.g. war weights. That does not make sense to me. We see huge variation in our win streak v oppos win streak so if they are doing that is doesn't work very well

    But I do believe there is a significant effect, I don't like it and I think it is too strong, our war record suggests as we get to say 5 win streak oppos get more and more hard to beat and we tend to lose before we reach say a win streak of 10. I would add that subjectively I find we get more wayward matches, so we are more likely (as a balanced clan) to meet engineered bases / clans as our win streak approaches/exceeds 5.

    Looking at our war log:

    WWWW (current win streak 4)
    L
    WW (win streak of 2, lost on percent, missed two top second attacks, long story, sigh)
    L
    WWWWWW (win streak 6, met a great clan, they thrashed us!)
    L
    WWWW (win streak 4)
    L
    WWWWWWWW (win streak 8)
    L
    WWWWWWW (win streak 7)
    L
    WWWWWWWW (win streak 8)
    L
    WWW (win streak 3)
    L

    I would say that this supports that there is something increasing difficulty of war for us as our win streak increases and hits a tipping point around the 5 win streak mark.
    Last edited by nobeone; March 12th, 2018 at 11:44 AM.

  10. #30
    Forum Superstar TankSinatra's Avatar
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    Still waiting for confirmation from the other side of the equation - "we're on a long streak, so we keep getting matched against clans with a 5 win streak (or 6 or 7, if they dodged a bullet or two)". Or, "just matched a clan on a 6 win streak, MM gave us a big weight advantage to compensate though!". Can't be a significant effect if nobody's ever on the other side of the mechanic.

    Further I'm not clear exactly how things get more difficult under this theory when you hit a 5 streak. By weight? By opponent streak?

    What actually makes more sense to me would be a 'kiddie pool' for clans with a lot of losses. SC doesn't have much of a reason that I can see to plan mechanics around stomping streaks, but they have plenty of reasons to encourage struggling clans to keep playing rather than quit.
    It's always the closet engineers that are the most bitter. Trying to maintain a righteous pose while doing exactly what they claim to hate, lashing out at anyone that points out the obvious.

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