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Thread: Clan War statistics taken from the API

  1. #141
    Forum Superstar dorsan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by urizano View Post
    Analysis of roster order in 10:10 wars.

    This is basically the same analysis as dorsan did initially, just with a different dataset.

    A clan is considered regular (r), if no higher townhall is lower in the roster, in other words, monotonous townhall progression.
    Otherwise, it is considered engineered (e).

    13988 wars analysed
    ee pairing: 3217
    er pairing: 5648
    rr pairing: 5123

    The total number of clans by category:
    e clans: 12082
    r clans: 15894

    In a random pairing, based on these total numbers, would be:
    ee pairing: 2609
    er pairing: 6864
    rr pairing: 4515

    Summary:
    There is only a slight propensity to match regular to regular and engineered to engineered clans.
    In 5648 cases, regular was matched to engineered, which is only slightly lower than with a completely arbitrary pairing - 6864.
    Now the interesting part is that there was a matchmaker update since my original check and your new check... Since the sample size wasn't the same, I converted the numbers to percentage for comparison (first number is yours, second is mine from OP):
    eng - 43.19% vs 30.99%
    reg - 56.81% vs 69.01%

    ee - 23.00% vs 22.34%
    er - 40.38% vs 41.35%
    rr - 36.62% vs 36.31%

    The engineered/regular matches seem to have remained pretty much the same (within the margin of error). But interestingly enough, you found larger number of engineered clans in 10v10 than I originally did a short while ago, from 30.99% to 43.19%.
    0 infernos = 2 infernos, therefore 0 = 2
    2 wardens = 5 wardens, therefore 2 = 5
    Conclusion: 0 = 5

    New mathematics brought to you by SuperCell war matchmaker.
    Bending reality since 2014.


  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorsan View Post
    But interestingly enough, you found larger number of engineered clans in 10v10 than I originally did a short while ago, from 30.99% to 43.19%.
    There is a simple explanation: in my dataset the higher clanlevels are over-represented: the list of clans I checked for "currentwar" consisted only of level 10+ clans.
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    How war matchmaking works - my take

  3. #143
    Forum Superstar dorsan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by urizano View Post
    There is a simple explanation: in my dataset the higher clanlevels are over-represented: the list of clans I checked for "currentwar" consisted only of level 10+ clans.
    That would mean there is a significantly larger number of engineered clans in level 10+ than in lower level clans.
    0 infernos = 2 infernos, therefore 0 = 2
    2 wardens = 5 wardens, therefore 2 = 5
    Conclusion: 0 = 5

    New mathematics brought to you by SuperCell war matchmaker.
    Bending reality since 2014.


  4. #144
    Forum Elder TankSinatra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorsan View Post
    That would mean there is a significantly larger number of engineered clans in level 10+ than in lower level clans.
    Which makes sense if you consider clan level a proxy for the combination of war frequency and war size. Those more interested in war are more likely to have dipped a toe into the dark arts, and larger clans are more likely to fit an engie or two in.
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  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by TankSinatra View Post
    are more likely to have dipped a toe into the dark arts,


    At ClashCon 2018, we have a brand new engineers corner, just for those who fancy 'a dip'!



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