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Thread: Resources, time and space: The future of CoC after TH11 and above

  1. #1

    Resources, time and space: The future of CoC after TH11 and above

    <TLDR: CoC will end at a certain point in history. Yeah, go ahead and read it you short attention-span millenial>

    Where will this game take itself and when? Current times teach us that mobile apps generally does not possess a long lifespan. The immense popularity of this game has made it a shining example of what a mobile multiplayer game can become, financially and gameplay wise. Even SC staff themselves have expressed their surprise at the success of CoC. That begs the question what the future of this game when it's creators did not anticipate it's success. Were irreparable mistakes made at it's conception that threaten it's future, or will it just die out like every game eventually does? In this thread I attempt to make some wild predictions and assumptions based on the future of CoC, by looking at three core gameplay components: Resources, time and space.

    Resources
    Up until now SC has kept the cost increase for upgrades somewhat steady, with most buildings following a factor 2 increase and troops upgrades following an increase more or less proportional to what the new troops gains in better resource looting abilities and overall strength. Some surprising steep jumps aside, like the level 6 archer and the Clan Castle. In the latest few updates most buildings are nearing their maximum. X-bow, I-tower are already at 8 million. AT, Cannon and Mortar will have to deviate from the current costs increase, WT and AA already have. Troop upgrades have pretty much all hit their max.

    Inevitably, TH11 will get an additional storage. But that's not the point. The price increases in the current game economy will, unless altered, eventually rise above what is reasonable farmable even for hard-core farmers. Walls have been there for a while. Either price increases will have go down or cap out, the game economy will be altered so more loot is available or the TH11 and above upgrades will be focused at gemmers only.

    Time
    Men is, by most accounts, not a patient animal. It's the main reason why people who can afford it use gems, and those who cannot afford them crave them. Despite that, SC probably has some upgrade time limit in mind. The biggest indication of that limit was made clear when the X-bow level 4 required a 14 day upgrade, the same as level 3. Most seasoned players will admit that you get used to waiting several days and finally weeks for an upgrade to finish (my first day-long upgrade felt like forever). However (whether it's a wish or an logical assumption), I don't think it's feasible that we end up with 3 week upgrades or month upgrades. What does that mean? That all upgrades eventually cap out at 14 days?

    Space
    The current grid is 40x40, or 1600 squares. Currently, a TH10 with all buildings built covers ~65% of the playing field. This is excluding traps, decorations and taking into consideration that some base designs have open space in them. Assuming that an TH11 would get 25 additional walls, extra storages, defensive buildings and other unknown buildings, the 40x40 playing field would become rather cramped. Attackers would be increasingly condemned to the maps edge and trees and bushes would have less and less room to grow. Though I suppose the latter is irrelevant to a (maxed) TH11. The most logical step regarding this problem is simply make the field bigger, but this will severely influence lower TH's. For instance, heroes and CC will be more easily lurable with more space.

    Conclusion
    Whatever the exact implications, it's clear that some of these issues will already be encountered at TH11, let alone after that. And any changes will have a greater impact on the gameplay that we have seen in upgrades this year. Many threads have been made about 'the goal' of CoC. Players sharing their boredom and wondering where their play style leads them. My take on this is that the very essence of this upgrade games does not allow it to be everlasting. If CoC has any shot at becoming a game that lasts for years within the current game mechanics, it will have to come up with a different way of players setting their goals apart from either 'gotta upgrade em all' or 'gotta cup' em all'.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Whynotnow's Avatar
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    I think only the points you brought up for time are going to be relevant, for it is fairly easy for SC to do something about resource income (modifiers, bonuses, etc) and and extra level on top of the current storages would expand to 16m. As for space, if they intend to continue past TH10, it'll be inevitable to move to a 50x50, perhaps even a 60x60 grid. That would be an investment on their end, but likely to be well worth it.
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  3. #3
    Millennial Club Sgruenler3's Avatar
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    I think that all of the resources points are irrelevant, as it would be very easy for supercell to change something, most likely storage capacity. But since by most projections, or so ive heard, th11 will probably come out around late November or early December, what will supercell do until then? Goblins are past due for an upgrade, but supercell doesn't seem inclined to upgrade them. I think that since they want to encourage trophy hunting, were looking at another level for minions and maybe golems. Oh and of course, archer towers need another level. I don't know how much level 11 costs, but supercell will have to make some adjustments in the November update if it wants the game to progress at the current rate.
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  4. #4
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    I was thinking about this kind of thing earlier today...

    Part of me craves TH11, just because I'm TH9 soon and I love my +50% loot bonus. The other part of me doesn't see my current hard-core playing enjoyment being fulfilled beyond about half-way through TH9 - after that I think the "economy" will be too broken and my will to collect 5M+ for upgrades that take 2 weeks... I'll have no apetite for that, nor for hard-core cup pushing as that costs too much money, so I'll play my TH9 less and just go raiding for fun, occasionally, with no other point, no "progression". I'll mostly play my second account, around TH7, instead.

    Where will SC take the game, and how will it do in the market? Well, I beleive their (understandable) decision to support an Android code base will mean only one thing... the game will develop as slowly, if not more slowly, than it has to date. It will evolve, with ocasional new troops, new levels of existing things, some tweaks and balances. But there will be no revolution... The game today is, fundanentally, the same as it was on day 1, and SC will milk their cash cow as long and as hard as they can, until eventually the worm turns and it dies out. If they are smart, and I'm sure they are, they will come up with a third game, and that might just be their next big thing, keeping their company alive while CoC and/or Hay Day decline.

    But I do not beleive they will try to revolutionise CoC in any way, especially now that they have committed to supporting two very different code bases - it's just too hard, and too risky. Better to inovate through trying a new game, one day, and see how that goes.

    So that's my thoughts - CoC will slowly evolve, more slowly once Andriod is released globally, the "in-game economy" will be tweaked but remain skewed towards the top, and as players we'll either enjoy it essentially as it is and always was, or eventually we'll leave. There will be no Clan Wars, no fundamental overhaul of the economy, or other major overhauls of the existing pillars on which the game has been built - other games already try some of that, and CoC is still top dog, probably will be for some time yet.

  5. #5
    Forum Veteran Ranger3399's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hastur View Post
    I was thinking about this kind of thing earlier today...

    Part of me craves TH11, just because I'm TH9 soon and I love my +50% loot bonus. The other part of me doesn't see my current hard-core playing enjoyment being fulfilled beyond about half-way through TH9 - after that I think the "economy" will be too broken and my will to collect 5M+ for upgrades that take 2 weeks... I'll have no apetite for that, nor for hard-core cup pushing as that costs too much money, so I'll play my TH9 less and just go raiding for fun, occasionally, with no other point, no "progression". I'll mostly play my second account, around TH7, instead.

    Where will SC take the game, and how will it do in the market? Well, I beleive their (understandable) decision to support an Android code base will mean only one thing... the game will develop as slowly, if not more slowly, than it has to date. It will evolve, with ocasional new troops, new levels of existing things, some tweaks and balances. But there will be no revolution... The game today is, fundanentally, the same as it was on day 1, and SC will milk their cash cow as long and as hard as they can, until eventually the worm turns and it dies out. If they are smart, and I'm sure they are, they will come up with a third game, and that might just be their next big thing, keeping their company alive while CoC and/or Hay Day decline.

    But I do not beleive they will try to revolutionise CoC in any way, especially now that they have committed to supporting two very different code bases - it's just too hard, and too risky. Better to inovate through trying a new game, one day, and see how that goes.

    So that's my thoughts - CoC will slowly evolve, more slowly once Andriod is released globally, the "in-game economy" will be tweaked but remain skewed towards the top, and as players we'll either enjoy it essentially as it is and always was, or eventually we'll leave. There will be no Clan Wars, no fundamental overhaul of the economy, or other major overhauls of the existing pillars on which the game has been built - other games already try some of that, and CoC is still top dog, probably will be for some time yet.
    I hear you but your point has me thinking... Why would the give us base edit? Why would they add the instant scroll for donations...why not take the hours it took to develop those and make level 12 walls for 8 mil a pop?? Because SC cares and wants to make it better! This baby isn't going anywhere... Ever see the Donald Duck cartoon where he's trying to pry open the chair but the chair refuses eventually Donald realizes he has to give some to get some.

    SC is Donald our wallets are the chairs. Think about it, they could get more money if they wanted... THey are making progress

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    I'm not doing any level 11 walls

  6. #6
    Warriors are OP BigdaddyJ's Avatar
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    Well....

    IMHO

    IF TH11 is released this map increase all these things will be unlocked only by th11...im sure SC could easily make it to where the map expands when th11 us unlocked these guys are smart when it comes to this game if they wasn't they wouldnt be making so much damn money...

    All i can say is if u get bored of this game farm if your farming push....if your pushing farm....

    And if you dont want to do the above statement download one of the many CoC clones in the App Store...


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  7. #7
    Great thought-provoking post. I'm afraid that I missed the "golden age" of Coc - I only started in May, so when the game eventually dies, I'm afraid that I won't have got the most out of it.

  8. #8
    Pro Member mrezman's Avatar
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    Maybe they'll raise the resource raiding cap for TH 11s to 11s only (to 300 k)
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  9. #9
    Senior Member novh's Avatar
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    great post.. and i think SC already realize it, that's why they expanding to new android markets.. with new players coming at least SC can buy another 6 - 12 months before this new player get bored.

    i don't think SC will add TH11, because 10 is the perfect number
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  10. #10
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    I'm personally for logical expansion rather than haphazard development, so this makes nice sense.

    Resources: as long as walls remain capped at 11, I don't think we'll see too bad of an expansion on this front, as increased storages mean that you can get more loot per gem, something that may be avoidable. Perhaps a storage upgrade would be more feasible. In terms of loot, a revision is seriously needed especially so if a new TH is added.

    Time: I have a strong feeling that the cap will stay except for a handful of uber buildings that provide some unwordly benefit like more space.

    Either way it heads, nice analysis kind sir.

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