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Thread: A new way to measure a product's value: Fixed Order Value

  1. #1
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    A new way to measure a product's value: Fixed Order Value

    For casual players and those not mathematically inclined or interested in game calculations, this may not be the thread for you. I don't expect the majority of you will care, but thank you for your interest and feedback if you do.

    We are all familiar with the fixed maximum Coin price for which goods can be sold for in your Roadside Shop. Wheat is 36 for a stack of 10; Corn, 72; etc. These are fixed values; constants that we all trust, built into the game and which have not changed. I’ve found that there are more fixed values for each product that many of us have been missing all this time.

    TL;DR: Each single item has a "hidden" fixed value of Coins and XP that it’s worth when used for a Boat or Town order. That fixed order value is the basis for Truck orders, too, with a random variance of +/- 50%. Because of this, not counting bonuses, the Town, Boats and Truck have the same average Coin and XP per item, over time. With time and investment in upgrades, the Town becomes the most effective way to outlet products

    Research

    I researched the Town, Truck and Boat sales venues. To get a baseline value for each product, I recorded only single-product orders - any order which required only one type of item (but in any quantity). I noted the quantity needed, and Coins and XP paid. I controlled for any bonuses that I earned which could make the math messy. I divided the payouts by the quantity required to get "clean" numbers on what exactly one of each product was worth, without bonuses. I did this separately for Truck, Riverboat, and Town orders to find correlation. The results were surprising.

    I did not research the two other sales venues - Roadside Shop was not researched, as the maximum prices and simple mechanics are well-known. I also did not measure Farm Visitors – “Walkers” who only reward 5 XP regardless of how much of an item they buy, and will pay out only about 60%-70% of maximum Roadside Shop price. I do not recommend Farm Visitors as a good Sales venue for any purpose.

    Riverboat and Town orders – A direct correlation

    There is 100% correlation of the Coins and XP paid for a single product, whether it is used to fill a town order or a boat order; whether filling your own or another player’s. Let’s use a Fish Fillet as an example:

    fishtown.jpg (click to view)

    A Townie order might require 6 Fish Fillets, and would award 126 Coins and 96 XP (not counting bonuses for shop upgrades - we'll get to that later). This divides out to 21 Coins and 16 XP per Fillet.

    fishboat.jpg (click to view)

    A Riverboat crate may require 7 Fish Fillets to complete, and would award 147 Coins and 112 XP. This divides out to the same 21 Coins and 16 XP per Fillet.

    This correlation between boat crates and townies was confirmed on well over 100 of the ~200 goods as of the time of this article – there were zero examples that did not match when both a town and a boat order were available to be compared.

    Although I only recorded single-product orders, out of curiosity I did look at some Town orders which asked for multiple different products after confirming some of these fixed order values. I found that for these “variety” orders, the total base Coins and XP paid was simply the sum of these products’ fixed order values. So there’s no additional bonus or penalty for orders which request different items.

    Truck Orders – Exceptions to the rule?

    Truck orders are quite a bit different. The values seem random, varying quite a bit from order to order for the same item! How come the Town and Boat are so consistent, but the Truck orders are so random? Well the truth is they aren't completely random. While there is a variation, the Truck orders appear to also be based on the above values, within a set range. After recording multiple tickets for the same single product, we start to see a pattern as we look at the difference between orders. Let’s start with the value a Diamond Ring was measured to always earn in the Town Gift Shop:

    Name Qty Coins XP
    Diamond Ring 1 1236 205

    As above, let’s call this the fixed order value. Now, let’s compare to some truck orders:
    14 Diamond Rings truck orders recorded:
    Name Qty Coins XP Coins per XP per
    Diamond Ring 2 2396 421 1198 210
    Diamond Ring 2 3263 277 1631 139
    Diamond Ring 2 2125 466 1062 233
    Diamond Ring 2 1408 585 704 292
    Diamond Ring 2 3485 240 1742 120
    Diamond Ring 2 2396 421 1198 210
    Diamond Ring 2 1556 560 778 280
    Diamond Ring 2 2297 437 1149 219
    Diamond Ring 2 1804 519 902 260
    Diamond Ring 2 2891 339 1445 170
    Diamond Ring 2 3286 273 1643 137
    Diamond Ring 2 2842 348 1421 174
    Diamond Ring 2 3584 225 1792 112
    Diamond Ring 2 3608 220 1804 110

    Out of the randomness, a pattern starts to develop. First, we see that the Coins and XP paid are inversely proportionate. This means, as one goes up, the other goes down. Not 1:1, but in proportion. Also, the lowest value for each isn’t lower than 50% of the fixed order value, and the highest value no greater than 150%.
    When comparing similar sets of data for other goods, I’ve found that the Maximum and Minimum coins are always within that 50% to 150% range, and that the percentages add up to almost exactly 200% (within a few hundredths; rounding error since this game only displays whole numbers). What this means: If a Truck order only pays 80% of fixed order value Coins, you’ll get 120% of fixed order value XP.

    What does this all mean? The Truck orders are BASED on the fixed order values that we can see with Town and Boat orders, and simply offer an adjusted amount that’s up to 150% of either coins or XP, at the expense of the other being as low as 50%. This means there is also a chance of seeing a Truck order that’s exactly the same as a Boat or Town order. Also, because the Coins and XP fluctuate in proportion to each other, you’ll **never** see an order where both the Coins and XP beat a Boat or Town order (before bonuses). This also means that over a long time with a large number of orders, the average of all XP and coins earned from Trucks would be the SAME PAYOUT as Boat or Town orders (again, not factoring in Bonuses – we’re almost there!).

    Bonuses

    Truck orders have bonuses baked into the values displayed on the ticket, and granted by your mastery of your farm machines. The first star for your production machine will give 10% more Coins, and your second star will give an extra 5% XP. One could also consider the variance in orders to be a bonus too – if you are looking for the highest XP payouts, and don’t care about the proportionate decrease in Coins earned, you may throw out orders until you find one that’s 50% fewer coins than the fixed order value but 150% XP. You stand to make as much as 57.5% more XP than an equivalent boat or town order, in a best-case scenario, and at the sacrifice of Coins.
    Riverboats have a completion bonus – if you fill all crates, then on top of the fixed order values, you can earn between 400-600 additional XP total (and a voucher, and boat points). This divides out to anywhere from 33XP to 66XP per crate (lower if 12 crates and 400 XP, higher if 9 crates and 600 XP). The overall average crate is worth about 247 XP based on my data, which means this XP bonus ranges from 13%-27% of an average boat order – only if you complete fill and cast off your own ship.

    Town orders have no direct Coin or XP bonus initially; however over time you may Level-Up each building by spending materials to increase their Coin or XP payout. The maximum is a 60% bonus for each. Each fully-served Townie will also pay out a single tool item, worth anywhere from 25 Coins (Dynamite) to 450 (Map). This can indirectly be considered a Coin bonus, although the utility of these items usually outweighs their sale value. With some work, you can earn up to 60% more Coins and XP per town order (plus tools).

    Comparing these three Sales Venues

    All orders are not created equal, despite their being based on fixed order values. The truck is available very early, and is the only way for new farmers to outlet items for XP. The Riverboat comes next, and then finally the Town. This limits how you can sell as the game progresses.

    The Truck and Town orders scale up in size as your player level increases, whereas Riverboat crates are randomized within a fixed range regardless of your player level. This limits the quantity of goods you can outlet at a time, which directly affects the scale of Coins and XP you’ll receive.

    Also, their timing is different. Most players’ ripped Truck tickets refresh every 30 minutes, the Riverboats arrive every 4 Hours, and your Town Trains run on a 6-hour schedule (Eggspress) or less for your Personal Train (minimum of 1:30 if you’ve fully upgraded it).

    These are variables that each individual will need to take into account. For the purposes of this analysis, we’ll control these variables by considering the player to be of sufficient level that they have all three venues, that the quantity of goods per order requested is the same on average for all venues, and that they have a well-stocked Barn to fill whatever orders they wish.

    Best Coins?

    First, I’ll mention that the Roadside Shop is the clear winner if your goal is solely to make Coins. Even with the highest bonus in the game (60% in a fully-upgraded Town building), most items cannot earn as many coins as they would just putting them into your shop, and advertising in the Daily Dirt. Use of the shop is limited only by your space, and the 5-minute ad interval. If you can’t afford all of the machines and other things you want to buy, and you’re comfortable staying at the same level until you have enough money, use your Roadside Shop.

    Best XP?

    If your goal is to earn maximum XP, then you have a choice to make. You can fully-upgrade your Town buildings, which takes quite a bit of time and investment. When you do, however, you’ll be earning a 60% bonus across the board on XP, and this is not exclusive of the Coins bonus, which you can also upgrade parallel to your XP bonus. With a maximum 14 Eggspress and 40 Personal Train visitors every 6 hours, you can serve 136-134 orders per 12 hours at a guaranteed 60% bonus. These orders tend to be smaller than Truck orders, because they request fewer different types of items. This means you’ll earn less, but this also gives you the control to selectively reject orders for difficult items, which is tough with the other venues.

    You can also selectively run Truck orders that maximize XP at the expense of coins. With the machine mastery bonus, you stand to earn up to 57.5% bonus for the tickets most heavily weighted toward XP. This is rare, but with tickets refreshing every 30 minutes and some tickets requesting a large number of different items, you can quickly earn a lot of XP. The drawback is that the tickets often request different items, some of them rare – and you may have to throw a lucrative ticket out if you aren’t well-supplied to fully complete the order. Let’s say you are willing to take the top 1/3 of tickets weighted towards XP, and tear the rest. Every 30 minutes you could complete 3 of the 9 tickets, plus 1 of the three which replace them. In the same 12 hours as the prior example, you could complete 96 tickets that are favorable for XP…not as high-volume as the Train, and some of the tickets may only be as high as 20-30% extra XP over fixed order value, but at no investment other than your time tearing through orders.

    The Riverboat’s completion bonus of a maximum 27% to XP is consistent, about on par with selecting higher-XP truck orders. Completing tough boats requires a dedication to specific items that may leave you cleaned out and unable to fill other more lucrative orders. At only 27-36 crates per 12 hours, there are far fewer opportunities to earn than the other options. You could pad that by filling neighbor crates, however this grants NO bonus whatsoever; you’ll only ever earn the fixed order value when helping others. It’s better to save your items for your own orders if your goal is maximizing XP with Boats.

    Best balanced approach?

    For the player who has it all, the Town is the Cadillac of sales venues. Fully upgrading your buildings, having a high turnover in your stores and a high velocity of Visitors will be very rewarding. Although these orders tend to be smaller, the additional control you’re given over who to serve and who to send home will leave your Barn less depleted. Also, the payout of tools is unmatched. For a player looking to earn a balanced amount of Coins and XP, the Truck is actually a poor choice, as its bonuses of 10% Coin and 5% XP are poor when compared to simply completing your own Riverboat (for the lump XP bonus) and selling excess items in your Shop for maximum coins. However, with Riverboats only coming every 4 hours and their massive completion requirements, you may decide to still complete some Truck orders with acceptable payouts when they ask for abundant items.

    My final thoughts


    There’s no reason for the experienced and well-stocked player with time to play not to look at all options. The base value of their product is pretty even across all venues. However, with a lot of investment, the Town becomes a very strong outlet in the long run. My personal recommendation would be to upgrade only the visitor slots and the XP for each Town building; after that, upgrading coins “costs” so much in terms of tools for each 5% boost that it will take a long time to see a return on that investment. Upgrading the speed on the Bed and Breakfast is a good advantage, but the other buildings can easily cycle through all of your needy visitors before the next train comes without any speed upgrades. Take truck tickets when they’re easy and good, and unless you really care about your leaderboard ranking, pass on the Riverboats.

    I've attached a pared-down version of my Excel spreadsheet with all research and results. Compare tab has Roadside Shop coin max (column B), and the Fixed Order Values for Coin (column D) and XP (column E). Most items were double-verified with two data points (see Truck, Town and Boat Data tabs). N/A means no data points were directly observed yet (only Onion, Honey and Bacon and Eggs missing at this time). Grey means these aren't used in the Town or Boat and a fixed order value may only be estimated based on average truck orders. Someone who wishes to include this in a wiki they moderate may do so, if they feel it's warranted and useful. If you want the full sheet with the math, verifications, etc, let me know personally.

    xp compare basic.zip Click for zip.

  2. #2
    PerkyCox's Avatar
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    All I can say is -- WOW

    ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING

    I may have to rethink my approach to the town, then. Hmmmmmmm

    Lev 132/Rep Lev 34 US Central Time Zone (GMT-6) FIELD ARTIST, STORYTELLER, and FROG WRANGLER 132/137 AchievementsProud Graduate of the University of Texas -- HOOK 'EM HORNS!! Thx PEACHIE for AWESOME sig pic! DONE with permits 11 Sep 17 - this has been a BORING grind. Sanctuary: Adults complete 25 Dec 2017. Babies estimated completion date: 12th of Never

  3. #3
    Forum Master daz258's Avatar
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    That. Is. Aweseome.

    Read the lot, love analysis like this. I always believed town would be best despite many high levels stating otherwise.

    I look forward to upgrading it further!

  4. #4
    Fresh Spawn
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    Absolutely wonderful analysis. I always figured it was worth working the town for the extra tools, it is great to see that it is good for XP and coin also. Thanks for all your hard work.

  5. #5
    Nice work!
    I like to see things like this too.

  6. #6
    All The Time
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    Love this! I always thrash my town, unless it's a double xp truck event, and upgrade xp earnings as I can.

  7. #7
    Great job! Always knew there was a reason I like the town so much...nice to see the actual numbers and analysis. Once the drops are factored in, the town is the best option (once the buildings are sufficiently upgraded)

  8. #8
    WussyPuss's Avatar
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    I am not much of a numbers person, but it is an interesting read. There are quite a few forumers who love this stuff.

    It would be of good use for a lower level farmer. No wonder I was drawn to the town!

    Now, I just feed 'em and forget 'em... reap the rewards.

    Being an independently wealthy farmer, I hardly look for value/coin... just need barn stuff.
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  9. #9
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    5 star post! Thank you.

  10. #10
    Forum Superstar Gymgirl4a's Avatar
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    Wow, thank you for this, very interesting. I have always put effort into the town as I felt the XP was better there. Nice to know my instincts were right😀😀😀. Thanks for all your work on this.👍🏻👍🏻

    Farm Level 162. Town 48. 😊
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