really supercell really???

Hmmm OP, I get your frustration (even though I've never spent a single diamond on making a mystery net, level 40 at the moment). But, you gotta keep in mind that it ultimately is random and up to chance. Supercell must've determined a % figure of some sort that is appropriate and fair, a chance for players to get the pearl. But as harsh as it is, spending bucket loads of money doesn't equate to a higher chance of getting it. The system doesn't take into account how much you've put in it. Just an example, maybe the random chance is 1/100. It doesn't really mean that for every 100 tries you'll get it once. It's just a probability.

Good luck if you choose to continue fishing for those pesky pearls though. Personally, I think there are better ways to spend those diamonds.

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Originally Posted by Tiggerr129

So if you exchange something of no real value for something else with no real value you still break even.

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Agree! The other day I told my husband I won some pixels in WoF and he rolled his eyes. I accept and embrace the randomness.

But still, moracle, I hope you win the pixels you want!

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Originally Posted by AaronCZY

Hmmm OP, I get your frustration (even though I've never spent a single diamond on making a mystery net, level 40 at the moment). But, you gotta keep in mind that it ultimately is random and up to chance. Supercell must've determined a % figure of some sort that is appropriate and fair, a chance for players to get the pearl. But as harsh as it is, spending bucket loads of money doesn't equate to a higher chance of getting it. The system doesn't take into account how much you've put in it. Just an example, maybe the random chance is 1/100. It doesn't really mean that for every 100 tries you'll get it once. It's just a probability.

Good luck if you choose to continue fishing for those pesky pearls though. Personally, I think there are better ways to spend those diamonds.

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I'm new so I would say I'm wrong BUT, if everything is random then how, when I have a boat order coming and I've see all day others getting boat orders for 3X16 do my little people suddenly come ask for huge amounts of bread???? Like 20.

How when I finally sell my silo expension things when I cannot find the one thing I need do I suddenly start getting that one silo thing I needed after the other 2 items are gone. I don't think anything is random - brilliantly programmed - not random.

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Originally Posted by ladam3

I'm new so I would say I'm wrong BUT, if everything is random then how, when I have a boat order coming and I've see all day others getting boat orders for 3X16 do my little people suddenly come ask for huge amounts of bread???? Like 20.

How when I finally sell my silo expension things when I cannot find the one thing I need do I suddenly start getting that one silo thing I needed after the other 2 items are gone. I don't think anything is random - brilliantly programmed - not random.

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Your little ppl ask for the stuff you have the most (some say top2 some say top3) and the stuff you have none. In terms of quantity it's about 1/3 or 2/3 of your inventory. My guess is, you stored tens of bread (30 - 60 perhaps?) for the upcoming ship order and that's why little ppl ask for it.

I agree with you on the SEM and BEMs. Don't think it's random, and do believe you can manipulate the system if you have a feeder farm. Hee hee hee

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Originally Posted by woolala

Your little ppl ask for the stuff you have the most (some say top2 some say top3) and the stuff you have none. In terms of quantity it's about 1/3 or 2/3 of your inventory. My guess is, you stored tens of bread (30 - 60 perhaps?) for the upcoming ship order and that's why little ppl ask for it.

I agree with you on the SEM and BEMs. Don't think it's random, and do believe you can manipulate the system if you have a feeder farm. Hee hee hee

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Nope. Gotta disagree with you there. I do have two farms. Not technically a feeder farm as I play them both with the intent of leveling up, but I have sold myself items when I need them. One farm always got tapes and planks. The other gets bolts, but that doesn't mean a thing as that ratio changes like crazy. I can move every last bolt to the farm that has tapes and it makes no difference in what pops up to either farm. I've even moved them all to my kids farm and the amount that pops up is basically the same. The only way you can game the system is by abandoning it and trading with others. That of course carries it's own risks. I think it is all sorta like that old saying that where you find something is always in the last place you look. (But I always wanted to know why anyone would keep looking in more places if they already found it)

As for the claim that it is not randomness but clever programming. I'd agree with the little people. Not sure what the thought was in having them ask for something you have none of, since you can't give them what you don't have, BUT I have seen folks who suggest using your last egg for example and then waiting for one of them to ask for eggs. Then holing that one hostage until you get enough eggs to give them in effect making them ask for what you want. This is particularly helpful during a double coin little person event. But for most other things, trust me using an already established random number generator is much easier and efficient than some complex programming that looks at your past behavior just to annoy you.

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Originally Posted by Tiggerr129

Then you know what I think you should do? You should quit, that will show them! Besides if the game makes you feel that bad, then maybe it's time for another game. Maybe one with better odds.

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Gee, thanx for that piece of constructive advice. :eek: I guess, you're right, I will quit ... this discussion, because I guess when you find something that doesn't work optimally, it's better to just sit passively with your hands in your lap and nod in consent, instead of pointing out that there are issues and that game might actually benefit from a change to adjust.

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Originally Posted by alcibiades

Gee, thanx for that piece of constructive advice. :eek: I guess, you're right, I will quit ... this discussion, because I guess when you find something that doesn't work optimally, it's better to just sit passively with your hands in your lap and nod in consent, instead of pointing out that there are issues and that game might actually benefit from a change to adjust.

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No one said you had to sit passively. There is a whole board for suggestions and ideas. But if the game is making you miserable, why on earth do you continue playing. What you see as issues are actually mistaken ideas of statistics. You seem to think that you are buying that tractor. You are not. You are entering a raffle. Just because the tractor is at the top doesn't mean you have a greater chance of getting it. Haven't you ever gotten sweepstakes mailings in the mail? The vacation or the car are front and center. Even when it says "everyone is a winner", take a look at the fine print. There will be one prize whose odds are 1:1. That's what you get. Usually some piece of junk. I once got a semi precious gem. More like a little black rock.

What you assume as not working optimally is working exactly as planned. That's why it's called a mystery package. If there was no mystery, they'd have to call it "The obvious package". If you want that tractor so much, earn a bunch of coins and buy the blasted thing. It is for sale exactly because so many people wanted it that SC made it available for purchase.

You wonder why they thought that their idea of randomness would be fun. Well read the rest of the thread. Many people do find it fun. But clearly you don't. My advice to you may have sounded sarcastic, but I was serious. SC is not going to do anything to make you happy because the wheel, the mystery packages, vouchers, even expansion materials are all random. They seem to like random. You don't seem to like it as much. Try another game. Try Oregon settler. They are not random much at all. But your people will die and you can be certain of other catastrophes. They seem to love that a lot and they happen on a pretty regular basis........ to everyone. Much more fair!

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Originally Posted by alcibiades

When I order BRT, I get presented with a picture that shows me I'll get BRT *or* some other gift *or* random item. That indicates a 33 % chance to get BRT. I'm ok with not getting BRT at first try, or even after a number of tries, but now I'm way past 20 tries, and I *still* haven't gotten BRT. Statistically that places odds of getting BRT at <5%. And then the image just seems like false promises, because the impression it gives is 33% chance of BRT, or perhaps even more, given that it's shown on top. It is this discrepancy between what they seem to offer and what I get that gives me the frustration.

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Can you elaborate with your statistical analysis? How did you arrive at the odds being <5%? I merely want to know the math you used to figure this out.

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Originally Posted by ilovehayday

Can you elaborate with your statistical analysis? How did you arrive at the odds being <5%? I merely want to know the math you used to figure this out.

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He didn't use statistics. I think what he figured is that after 20 tries, his odds weren't even a good as 1 in 20, but that's not statistics. The statistics of this can't be figured out since we have no idea of how many items are in the mix. If there would be 18 ? Items 1 tractor and one prize in the middle, them 1 in 20 might be close, but we don't know. He's using the number of tries and not the number of possible gifts in the mix. At least that's what I remember from stats class.

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Originally Posted by Tiggerr129

He didn't use statistics. I think what he figured is that after 20 tries, his odds weren't even a good as 1 in 20, but that's not statistics. The statistics of this can't be figured out since we have no idea of how many items are in the mix. If there would be 18 ? Items 1 tractor and one prize in the middle, them 1 in 20 might be close, but we don't know. He's using the number of tries and not the number of possible gifts in the mix. At least that's what I remember from stats class.

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Okay, glad I am not the only one trying to find meaning in it. I am in stats right now and I do indeed get a value of less than 5 (much MUCH less than 5, though, it's between 0 and 1). I think the 33% chance is incorrect because you're right, we have no idea the number of possibilities in the outcome, but assuming that IS the possibility, then yes, the number is indeed less than 5. Something is amiss here and I just wanted to review the math. Here I am on Spring Break and math nerd me just can't go do something else! lol

Edit: NOW I see how their value value of <5 was gotten. I was trying to use the methods we learned in stats to determine the value and got a different value which as it turns out is ALSO less than 5, so I had not initially seen this other way of finding an answer. Thanks for pointing that out for me Tigerr!