How to increase your chances of an xmas tree

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Originally Posted by Rastis

I think you have something there.


Try #2 occurs 8 hours later, right? If so, I'm all with you on that..



From http://clashofclans.wikia.com/wiki/Obstacles you can see that last years X-mas trees had a 2% chance to spawn. The rest is probability calculations.
The 2nd point about spawns and spawn areas we covered earlier in this thread, and 3. is based on last years tree spawning and common sense. The cost and reward has been posted by multiple trustworthy forumers in other threads.

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Guess who wrote that. ;)

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Originally Posted by TPthenasty

No trolling here my friend; the loot varries with each spawn. Another clan mate confirmed 150k gold loot after removal, while another mentioned only the above stated 25k removal and 75k loot. Guess it varries.. got lucky I guess. Good luck!

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No it doesn't.

I Saw A Noob With Three...
Go Premie Mode?:rolleyes:

If the trunk grows into a normal tree, does that mean the Xmas tree failed and that there's no chance of that certain tree to develop more into an Xmas? Or can it still develop more?

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Originally Posted by RoyCranston

'Tis the season of patiently waiting for your xmas tree to spawn! Though I really don't care for the design and look of the 2013 tree, it's still a rarity and I'd love to have it on my base. With the xmas tree on my Christmas list, I have a few questions! Hopefully you forum-goers can help me out:

1.) First and foremost, what are my odds of getting a xmas tree on my base? I've read that your percentage chance is somewhere in the range of 2% and thats a scary statistic considering how badly i want one!

2.) Will trees (or other 'objects' for that matter) spawn at the same rate of 8 hours per day no matter how large or small of a space they have to spawn in? In my case, I'm thinking about moving my non-defense buildings such as barracks and gold mines towards the edge of my base in an attempt to get a xmas tree to spawn in the null zone just outside of my base. Will xmas trees still have the same chance of spawning there then? I should add that I have about 20 trees spread out in that area already, and I would instantly chop down any logs, stumps, mushrooms, or bushes that dare pop up while I'm waiting for me tree!

3.) Any other simple tips or tricks that have worked for you guys with trees in the past or even the xmas trees from lasted year? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks so much!
-Roy

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hola, yes your chances are slim indeed. You can have a maximum of 40 obstacles on your base. They Respawn at a rate of 1 per. 8 hours. A medium tree carries a weight of 5% spawn chance. So if you had 100 random spawns chances are 5 would be medium trees. Now Christmas trees have a 2% chance to spawn so out of 100 spawns 2 might be Christmas trees.


thats IF the Christmas trees have a separate spawn from other ordinary medium trees, CoCwiki doesn't specify.

if they share the same spawn weight then the game would roll to see what spawns, if it chooses a medium tree it would then roll again to see if its a normal tree or Christmas tree. (Again wiki doesn't specify) if that's the case a base has closer to 2 out of 10,000 rather than 2 out of 100.

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Originally Posted by Finite

If the trunk grows into a normal tree, does that mean the Xmas tree failed and that there's no chance of that certain tree to develop more into an Xmas? Or can it still develop more?

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The obstacles don't grow/change/develop. Once a trunk, always a trunk. Once a normal tree, always a normal tree.

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Originally Posted by Anarchos

hola, yes your chances are slim indeed. You can have a maximum of 40 obstacles on your base. They Respawn at a rate of 1 per. 8 hours. A medium tree carries a weight of 5% spawn chance. So if you had 100 random spawns chances are 5 would be medium trees. Now Christmas trees have a 2% chance to spawn so out of 100 spawns 2 might be Christmas trees.


thats IF the Christmas trees have a separate spawn from other ordinary medium trees, CoCwiki doesn't specify.

if they share the same spawn weight then the game would roll to see what spawns, if it chooses a medium tree it would then roll again to see if its a normal tree or Christmas tree. (Again wiki doesn't specify) if that's the case a base has closer to 2 out of 10,000 rather than 2 out of 100.

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Why would you assume they have any relation to normal trees?

The spawn weights of the normal obstacles total 100%. Thus the obvious behavior is for them to choose a number between 1-100 and map the normal obstacles to that. For example a mushroom has a 10% chance so make that spawn if 1-10 is chosen. A bush has a 20% chance so make that spawn if 11-30 is chosen, etc.

The christmas trees are in addition to the normal spawns.

If I were to create a game and implement this I would do the following:

Choose a random number between 1-100. If 99 or 100 is selected, a x-mas tree spawns. If 1-98 is chosen, reroll and use the normal obstacle spawn table.

Alternatively, they could fudge it and choose a random number between 1-102 where 101 and 102 represent the x-mas tree and 1-100 is the normal spawn table.

I suppose they could make it where if a small tree spawns (20% chance) that they then choose a number between 1-10 and if a 10 is chosen it becomes an x-mas tree.

All of the above methods would be pretty close to the 2 out 100 rate. Clearly it's not 2 out of 10,000. Lots and lots of people get trees, with quite a number of people getting multiple trees (I got 4 last year). If the probability were 2 out 10,000 and the winter update lasted 30 days with 3 spawns per day, your chances of getting a tree would be less than 2%. Your chances of getting 4 trees would be 4x10^-9 which is getting up there with winning the lottery odds.

The odds seem much more in line with 2 out of a 100 which gives you an 84% chance of getting at least one, and a 10% chance of getting 4 or more.

I got one on the first day lol

No increasing chances, it's 100 % random, not 99 % random, OP, you just have to be patient.

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Originally Posted by Moomoo

Yes its ugly but so is the loot...but you still want loot dont you..

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Nope.

I don't want the loot.
50,000 gold or a chance at gems? I choose gems. (or to keep the tree)

Had a funny thought and a calculation.

If there are 90 possible spawns of a Xmas Tree.
With a chance of 2%
And there are 40 Xmas Trees that could be spawned...

There is a 1 in 4,171,387,538,764,530,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000 chance of getting 40 Xmas Trees

Good Luck everyone!